Sánchez threatens snap election over housing decrees

Two housing decrees and a threat: elections if Junts says no

The PSOE has staked the legislature on two royal decree-laws on housing that Congress must validate this Friday. The warning is already circulating among its MPs: if Junts, Podemos or the PNV bring down the texts, Pedro Sánchez should call a snap election to expose his partners. «It would be his grave», one of them says. Housing, which had been off the agenda for years, has ended up propping up the Government.

What the two housing decrees include

The first, approved in a nail-biting Council of Ministers, regulates seasonal and room rentals, extends two years the contracts in force that expire before 31 December, and extends protection against evictions until 2030. That point was key to closing the deal: the PSOE wanted to set the cap at 2028. Vulture funds will also be unable to buy housing until that year.

The second is more ambitious and has less chance. It includes the automatic renewal of rental contracts demanded by Sumar and requires landlords to compensate tenants with 12 monthly payments if they do not extend. It was published in the BOE a day after the first, which fuelled all kinds of speculation.

Why Junts, PNV and Podemos still refuse to reveal their vote

Junts spokesperson Míriam Nogueras left her support up in the air: her group is «disappointed» and «concerned». Her argument is that the decree pursued two objectives — banning vulture funds from buying housing and protecting families — and that, as drafted, it fulfils neither.

The party's calculation is not only social. Much of the analysis suggests that moderate Catalan independence supporters antiestéticar a general election less than Aliança Catalana on their own turf, and a snap election could freeze that advance before it grows further. Within the PNV, some argue that elections this year would suit them to reorganise their space. Podemos has still not declared its vote.

Four years without a Budget and 272,000 evictions

The context does not help. The Executive has failed for the fourth consecutive year to comply with article 134.3 of the Constitution, which requires the Budget to be presented at least three months before the year expires. And in the eight years of the Sánchez era, 272,000 evictions have been recorded, despite the initial promise that there would be no more. Since Saturday, hundreds of people have been camping in Puerta del Sol demanding urgent measures.

Sánchez appeared on Wednesday alongside Macron and admitted he has no guarantees that the decrees will pass. He limited himself to trusting in «the best scenario» and dodged what consequences a rejection would have.

The outcome that can be sensed

The arithmetic suggests that the first decree will survive and the second will fall: it is the scenario admitted even within the Socialist group. But the same arithmetic has been disproving predictions for three years. If the majority breaks on Friday, the question will no longer be what happens with housing, but how long it takes Sánchez to dissolve the Cortes.