Vox nears 21% as Abascal joins La Revuelta for campaign

Vox nears 21% as Abascal joins La Revuelta

A More in Common poll dated November 3 — conducted before the railway accident — places the PP at 28.3%, the PSOE at 27.6%, and Vox at 20.8%, just shy of the 21% threshold. The survey, lacking PollCheck validation, fuels the narrative of a technical deadlock between the two major parties, while Vox consolidates its position as the third force with potential kingmaker status. The news is rounded off by the announcement that Santiago Abascal will appear on La Revuelta with Broncano on TVE just days before the official campaign begins, a move viewed within the party as an opportunity to dismantle caricatures of his image.

The headline data point is clear: Vox rises to 20.8%, leaving the PP at 28.3%, only eight tenths ahead of the PSOE. The combined vote share of PP and Vox exceeds 49%, while the fragmented left — Sumar (Frente Amplio) at 7.8%, Podemos at 2.6%, and SALF at 2.4% — fails to compensate. Seat projections circulating in media and social networks raise alarms: if the PSOE falls below 125 seats, parliamentary arithmetic becomes complex. Some argue the PSOE can still form a coalition with Junts, ERC, Bildu, PNV, and Compromís to reach 164 seats; others see Vox as an inevitable partner for the PP, though not entering government until 2030.

Broncano’s La Revuelta: Opportunity or Trap?

Abascal’s interview on La Revuelta has sparked intense debate. Critics call it a strategic error, noting that Broncano’s audience leans left and is unlikely to vote for Vox regardless of his demeanor. Supporters view it as a platform to reach undecided voters and TVE audiences who have never heard Abascal without filters. Analysis suggests the key will be how he handles topics like immigration and LGBTQ+ rights. Speculation points to a nuanced response such as: “I have nothing against gays and lesbians, but I don’t want street spectacles.” This moderation could help dispel negative stereotypes.

Risks include Broncano playing dirty or facing audience booing. The interview comes amid high tension: the resignation of Valladolid’s mayor has reignited tactical voting among left-wing supporters, with some calculations suggesting the PSOE could regain two or three percentage points and 10-15 seats. If compounded by a false-flag incident, the PSOE might reach 140-145 deputies, leaving PP and Vox politically exposed.

Economic Factors: Debt, Pensions, and Audits

Beyond politics, economic concerns loom large. There are warnings about real debt being higher than official figures indicate, unsustainable pension spending and subsidies, and the need for immediate audits. Comparisons with the economic legacy inherited by Rajoy are unavoidable: back then, opposition criticized austerity cuts, but now demands for strict measures grow. The question remains whether a PP-Vox government would dare to uncover hidden issues or simply manage inertia as usual.

One disconcerting detail: the More in Common poll was conducted before the railway accident and the mayor’s resignation, meaning Vox’s 20.8% might be understated. Or not. In politics, as in markets, consensus often proves wrong.