VOX demands immediate elections to back Spain's no-confidence motion

VOX demands immediate elections to back a motion against Sánchez

Parliamentary arithmetic has once again put a no-confidence motion against Pedro Sánchez's government on the table. VOX has set its position with an explicit condition: it will only support the move if it leads to immediate elections and involves no pacts or concessions to independentist parties. Santiago Abascal's party confirms its support for Alberto Núñez Feijóo's investiture if the King proposes him as candidate. The problem, according to various analyses, is not the vote count: it is whether the main opposition party makes a decisive move.

Who has the numbers and who has the will

On paper, the support exists. VOX has already said yes to Feijóo's investiture if Felipe VI designates him candidate. Junts, for its part, has hinted that it might consider the formula, although the party itself hurried to clarify that it "does not defend" this path. The ball is in the PP's court, and that is where the issue stalls.

Some argue that Feijóo simply does not want to be president, just as his predecessor Mariano Rajoy did not try to force the numbers when he had the chance. Power must be desired, and part of the analysis considers that the PP leader lacks that drive. Conversely, the opposing view points to colder calculation: without guarantees that the operation will succeed, making a move weakens the PP and strengthens Sánchez.

Junts' role: pressure or real interest

The most repeated hypothesis is that Junts has no intention of toppling the government. With ERC in a phase of disintegration, Puigdemont's party gains more by squeezing Sánchez in budget negotiations than by allying with the PP and VOX in an operation its base would not digest. Supporting a no-confidence motion alongside the right wing would be, in the words of several analysts, shooting oneself in the foot.

Another current reads the move as calculated revenge. The PSOE allegedly excluded Puigdemont from the amnesty, deceived Junts regarding the economic agreement (concierto económico), and seized control of the Generalitat of Catalonia. In this scenario, threatening a motion is a way to remind Sánchez that he still needs them. And incidentally, to measure how much he is willing to concede.

The cost of governing with VOX

Even if the operation succeeded, the price would be high. A PP-VOX executive would have to negotiate practically everything with Abascal's party, limiting its margin for any reform. Those defending this path argue the opposite: in regions where both have governed together, laws were passed that the PP could not have enacted alone, and that same mechanism would work in Madrid.

The alternative scenario is paralysis. If there is no motion, Sánchez continues to govern with his existing allies, budgets pass, and the legislature extends. Several analyses suggest that the real test will come later, when voters speak again and someone must try to govern with whatever numbers emerge.

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The operation remains exactly where it started: with VOX setting conditions, Junts contradicting itself within hours, and the PP failing to take the step. No one has yet moved the piece needed to stop this being merely a feint.