VDA warns: Euro 7 rules will effectively ban combustion engines

Euro 7: De facto ban on combustion cars arrives in 2025

The Euro 7 standard will not ban combustion engines by decree. It will do something more effective: leave them with almost no technical or economic viability. This is the diagnosis drawn from the recommendations of the Advisory Group on Vehicle Emission Standards (AGVES) to the European Commission, which places the end of diesel and gasoline vehicles in 2025 and which is reported by the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA). The VDA president, Hildegard Müller, summarizes it bluntly: the introduction of the Euro 7 standard "will de facto prohibit automobiles with internal combustion engines from 2025 onwards." The framework is not accidental, because in 2021 CO2 targets are already applied to 100% of the fleet, without the margin for the most polluting 5% that was forgiven in 2020.

What limits does the Euro 7 standard propose?

The study commissioned by Brussels places nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions at the center of the target. The limit for new vehicles would drop to 30 mg/km, with an even stricter proposal aiming for 10 mg/km. Today the standard sets 60 mg/km for petrol and 80 mg/km for diesel. Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions would fall to a range of 100 to 300 mg/km, compared to the current 500-1000 mg/km.

To this are added method changes that tighten things up elsewhere: no exceptions would be accepted in the Real Driving Emissions (RDE) test, vehicles would have to comply between minus 10 degrees and 40 degrees and at altitudes of 1,000 to 2,000 meters above sea level. The useful life of new vehicles is defined as 15 years or 240,000 kilometers, and emissions produced while driving with a trailer, roof box, or bike rack would be included. The Commission has not yet decided anything concrete and points to a legislative decision during the trinc year, but the draft already marks the terrain.

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German industry warns: "It is technically impossible"

The VDA maintains that combustion engines would cease to be competitive due to the technological cost of meeting such low limits. Müller adds that the implicit goal is for cars to be emission-free under any circumstance, with a trailer, in mountain areas, or in slow urban traffic: "It is technically impossible and everyone knows it." The employers' association also points to a material obstacle, the lack of charging infrastructure, to argue that a short-term transition to electric mobility does not solve the problem. The German government had not offered a closed official reaction at that time. For manufacturers, non-compliance translates into fines that can amount to billions of euros.

Synthetic fuels and hydrogen: why NOx doesn't disappear on its own

The first path proposed to save the thermal engine is synthetic fuels with a neutral CO2 balance. The argument runs into a chemical problem, and here the detail matters. No normal fuel contains nitrogen: the nitrogen oxides in the exhaust come from the air itself, which is approximately 70% nitrogen. It is a weak reaction and very dependent on temperature —more NOx the hotter the cylinder—, but a reaction nonetheless. Changing gasoline for a synthetic one does not eliminate nitrogen from the mixture, so NOx still comes out. Some also recall that these very low figures could approach thermodynamic limits and that only compressed natural gas would withstand the challenge.

Hydrogen appears as the other major candidate. Its proponents emphasize that it refuels as quickly as gasoline and would avoid expanding the electrical grid. Against it, some recall that electrolysis invests much more energy than remains in the form of hydrogen, with an Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of only 0.25: around 75% of the energy would be lost. Natural gas, more abundant and also convertible into bio-CNG, is postulated as an alternative, although brands have been abandoning gas versions.

Spain's vehicle fleet left hanging

The German focus hides the dimension of the problem in Spain. Some argue, based on the current fleet, that if the limits were approved, the majority of circulating vehicles —about 32 million units— could not meet them and would have to be taken out of circulation, with no transition time or margin for tax incentives to move that fleet towards hybrids or electric vehicles. And in the chapter of alternatives, one participant highlights a compressed natural gas model, the Skoda Octavia G-TEC, which declares up to 700 km of autonomy from just over 29,000 euros, with CO2 reductions of around 15% and NOx reductions of up to 80%, and a WLTP certification of 113-118 g/km.

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Over the whole thing hangs another shadow: during a cold wave, the average daily electricity price hit highs and grew by 27% at the start of 2021. Some point out that renewables did not cover demand on those days. If that happens before electrifying anything, the question of what happens when the electric fleet is added remains open.

The Euro 7 standard is not yet approved. Brussels may soften the deadlines, delay them, or keep them, and legislative decisions are made with margins that no one controls today. But the direction pointed to by the drafts is clear: the combustion engine ceases to be the standard and becomes an exception that must be justified every year. Anyone buying a new car today should not be surprised if, within a decade, their main problem is not how much it pollutes, but where they can drive it.