US and Russia in talks over Nord Stream gas, reports say

US and Russia negotiate Nord Stream gas: Europe will foot the toll

Is Russian gas returning to Europe via Nord Stream? According to reports circulating, the US and Russia would be negotiating the reopening of the pipeline, with Washington acting as intermediary. The scheme taking shape is as simple as it is galling: Russia produces, the US takes a commission, Europe pays. And it does so after shooting itself in the foot with sanctions, while the rest of the world keeps doing business without so much fuss.

The paradox is no small one. The pipeline linking Russia and Germany across the Baltic, operational since 2011, was sabotaged in 2022 and never repaired. Now, with winter knocking at the door and European energy reserves at rock bottom, someone seems to have remembered that the infrastructure existed. Russian gas used to be cheap; with the American cut, things even out. Or so say those who see in the move a way of artificially driving up the price of what once flowed toll-free.

The perfect deal: Russia produces, the US collects, Europe pays

The scheme has its own perverse logic. Russia sells, the US brokers, Europe buys. Every link in the chain adds a cost. And the last in the chain, as always, is the European consumer. Some put it bluntly: the gas is bought from Russia and a commission is paid to the US. In the end, the final price for the European taxpayer rises, even though the gas comes from the same old place.

The question hanging in the air is why Europe doesn't negotiate directly with Russia. The answer, according to some schools of analysis, is that Brussels has no room to manoeuvre: without Washington's permission, nothing moves here. Total subjugation, they call it. Others prefer to speak of geopolitical realism: if the US controls the tap, it controls the price.

Why doesn't Europe buy gas directly from Russia?

Because, according to the prevailing narrative, it can't. The sanctions, the Nord Stream sabotage and NATO dependence have left the EU with no capacity for autonomous negotiation. Europe doesn't buy Russian gas because it isn't allowed to. The result is that it pays more for the same product, with an intermediary taking its cut.

The calculation going around is simple: if Russian gas was cheap and now the American commission has to be added on, the savings evaporate. The real problem was that Russian gas was cheap, some quip. With the cut, things even out. And the European citizen, meanwhile, keeps paying the bill.

Winter bites: reserves at rock bottom and inflation lurking

With winter's arrival and European energy reserves at rock bottom, something will have to be done. Inflation, which already landed a first heavy blow, threatens a second if gas prices spike again. Interest rates have been raised little and slowly; the room for manoeuvre is narrow. The first blow of inflation can no longer be stopped; now the aim is to make the second one softer.

The urgency explains why what was unthinkable a year ago is now being negotiated. The sabotaged pipeline is back on the table. And with it, the evidence that the European energy board moves at the pace set by others.

Groundhog Day: this was already negotiated a year ago

This is not the first time reopening Nord Stream has been discussed. It was already negotiated more than a year ago, some recall. That was always the point, in fact. The novelty is that the US now appears as an explicit intermediary, taking its cut. The rest is the same film with different scenery.

Meanwhile, the EU legislates on bottle caps tethered to the bottle. Meanwhile, Brussels legislating that caps must stay attached. The irony writes itself.

The ending: a rift with no plan

There was an infrastructure working since 2011. They took out NS1, said they didn't want NS2 inaugurated. And now negotiations are under way for gas to flow again, with a new toll. A rift with no plan. Or with a plan that was never ours.