A user claims Uruguay sells twice as many electric vehicles as Spain when comparing percentages of the total market. This claim, sparked by news of 100 BYD electric buses delivered in the South American country, triggered a storm of figures, nuances, and cross-accusations that need to be dismantled one by one. Because the raw data exists, but the narrative surrounding it has more holes than it appears.
How many electric vehicles are actually sold in Uruguay
The numbers discussed place Uruguay's electric vehicle sales at 1,887 units in 2023 and 5,856 in 2024. Adding hybrids, the total electrified vehicles would reach between 7% and 8% of the market, according to one of the cited sources. Another figure in the exchange raises the total of pure electric vehicles to around 16%, which is the basis of the headline that started it all.
Here begins the first problem. Because if broken down by technology, the bulk of what is sold is not pure electric vehicles, but mild and conventional hybrids. In the Spanish case, the cited figures are eloquent: 2,420 units of mild hybrids versus 2,093 conventional hybrids, with pure electric vehicles far behind. Putting all that in the same bucket and calling it 'electric' is, at best, generous.
The trick of counting scooters and motorcycles as cars
One of the most repeated objections points to the perimeter of the statistics. In the Uruguayan figures, according to several participants, electric motorcycles bought by local councils and scooters are included. That is, vehicles that do not compete with a combustion tourist car but swell the electrification percentage until it becomes unrecognizable.
Added to this is the fiscal chapter. The tax exemptions accompanying the purchase of these vehicles miccionan, in practice, that the rest of taxpayers subsidize the party. Without this public boost, the most critical reading argues, the market would not sell even half. The obvious question is how much of that 16% is real demand and how much is accounting engineering with someone else's money.
Six years of battery and impossible amortization
The second front of the debate is the total cost of ownership. The most cited argument: an electric vehicle costs on average about 10,000 euros more than its combustion equivalent. With an expense of 150 euros monthly for diesel, it would take six years to start amortizing the difference. And at six years, according to this thesis, it is time to change the battery, whose price is around 30% of the car's value.
The counter-argument comes with data on warranties and useful life. Manufacturers point to twenty years of battery life, and standard warranties cover 8 years or 120,000 kilometers. With a usage of 20,000 kilometers annually, that gives exactly the six years of the previous calculation. The discussion, therefore, is not about whether the battery lasts, but about what happens just when the manufacturer's umbrella expires.
Why China yes and the Spanish garage no
The third axis is infrastructure. In China, where most of the population lives in apartments, electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles exceed 50% of sales, with a forecast to reach 70% by the end of 2025. The figure is used as proof that living vertically is no obstacle. The objection: in Spain, only about 30% of cars sleep in a garage, and in towns there is no public charger.
The exchange on this point turned into a squabble over percentages of homes with garages that ended with one of the parties admitting that their initial figure — an 80% of homes without garages — was false and that the correct figure was closer to 70%. An episode that well illustrates the general tone: much certainty, little source, and late correction.
The context no one disputes: Uruguay has no oil
There is a factor that explains much of the phenomenon and is mentioned in passing: Uruguay does not produce oil. The bet on electrification responds to both energy policy and foreign dependence. This does not invalidate the data, but it strips it of the character of spontaneous consumer conversion that some attribute to it.
With this backdrop, Uruguay's 16% ceases to be an inexplicable anomaly and becomes the result of sustained public policy with public money and favorable taxation. Translating that recipe to Spain without changing anything else is, at best, adventurous.
The trend to count hybrids, scooters, and municipal motorcycles under the label of electric will continue to inflate percentages on both sides of the Atlantic. If the breakdown by technology is imposed in official statistics, more than one headline will have to be rewritten.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
Read the full discussion (120 replies).
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