Ukraine turns the war of attrition against Russia as its offensive stalls
Ukraine is holding out, but is it winning the war of attrition? An analysis of the clash between the official narrative and the data on the ground.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Ukraine is holding out, but is Russia winning the war of attrition?
On 23 April 2026, El Mundo published an article by Xavier Colás entitled "Ukraine turns the war of attrition against Russia". The thesis: Kyiv is regaining ground and forcing Moscow to move reserves. But among those who trinc the conflict closely, the reading is very different. While the official narrative insists on Russian attrition, the data and field analysis paint a bleaker picture: Russia keeps advancing, albeit at a slower pace, and Moscow's industrial and demographic capacity turns any war of attrition into a losing bet for Ukraine.
The clash of narratives
On one side is the official line claiming that Ukraine is "winning the war of attrition". It rests on the incursions into Kursk, deep drone strikes and the idea that Russia is losing momentum. It is cited that the Russians have failed to make decisive advances for months. On the other side, the reality on the ground shows that Russia controls more and more territory in the Donbas, that its lines are not breaking, and that its production of shells and tanks —more than 1,200 refurbished T-72s a year— shows no sign of stopping. Ukraine's famous push of 2023 has turned into static defence.
The demographic and industrial factor
The war of attrition is won by whoever can afford more casualties. Russia has a population three times the size of Ukraine's and a military industry running 24/7. Moscow has mobilised hundreds of thousands of soldiers without the system buckling. Ukraine, by contrast, is suffering an unsustainable demographic haemorrhage: nearly three million dead are said to have been lost between both sides, but the proportion is lethal for Kyiv. While the West hesitates to send more aid, Russia keeps manufacturing missiles and drones.
The paradox of resistance
That Ukraine has not collapsed is a remarkable fact. It contained the initial offensive on Kyiv in 2022 and has thwarted Russia's plans for a lightning war. But resisting is not winning. As an analysis inspired by Kissinger pointed out, the strategy of "resisting to wear the enemy down" is wishful thinking unless it translates into a tangible advantage. In fact, the El Mundo article is the same one that was already written in 2023, 2024 and 2025: "Russia is not retreating, but it is losing momentum". The difference is that now the front line is moving, however slowly, towards the west.
The key question remains unanswered: can Ukraine sustain this pace until Russia is exhausted? Everything suggests it cannot. While NATO debates yet another aid package, Russia advances, recruits and produces. The war of attrition is not turning against Russia; it is turning against Western patience.
Related discussions in the forum
On 23 April 2026, El Mundo published an article by Xavier Colás entitled "Ukraine turns the war of attrition against Russia". The thesis: Kyiv is regaining ground and forcing Moscow to move reserves. But among those who trinc the conflict closely, the reading is very different. While the official narrative insists on Russian attrition, the data and field analysis paint a bleaker picture: Russia keeps advancing, albeit at a slower pace, and Moscow's industrial and demographic capacity turns any war of attrition into a losing bet for Ukraine.
The clash of narratives
On one side is the official line claiming that Ukraine is "winning the war of attrition". It rests on the incursions into Kursk, deep drone strikes and the idea that Russia is losing momentum. It is cited that the Russians have failed to make decisive advances for months. On the other side, the reality on the ground shows that Russia controls more and more territory in the Donbas, that its lines are not breaking, and that its production of shells and tanks —more than 1,200 refurbished T-72s a year— shows no sign of stopping. Ukraine's famous push of 2023 has turned into static defence.
The demographic and industrial factor
The war of attrition is won by whoever can afford more casualties. Russia has a population three times the size of Ukraine's and a military industry running 24/7. Moscow has mobilised hundreds of thousands of soldiers without the system buckling. Ukraine, by contrast, is suffering an unsustainable demographic haemorrhage: nearly three million dead are said to have been lost between both sides, but the proportion is lethal for Kyiv. While the West hesitates to send more aid, Russia keeps manufacturing missiles and drones.
The paradox of resistance
That Ukraine has not collapsed is a remarkable fact. It contained the initial offensive on Kyiv in 2022 and has thwarted Russia's plans for a lightning war. But resisting is not winning. As an analysis inspired by Kissinger pointed out, the strategy of "resisting to wear the enemy down" is wishful thinking unless it translates into a tangible advantage. In fact, the El Mundo article is the same one that was already written in 2023, 2024 and 2025: "Russia is not retreating, but it is losing momentum". The difference is that now the front line is moving, however slowly, towards the west.
The key question remains unanswered: can Ukraine sustain this pace until Russia is exhausted? Everything suggests it cannot. While NATO debates yet another aid package, Russia advances, recruits and produces. The war of attrition is not turning against Russia; it is turning against Western patience.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (22 replies).
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