Trump backs down to Iran: ceasefire and concessions

Trump signs a ceasefire with Iran: capitulation or tactical pause

The war between the United States and Iran is winding down with an agreement that smells of American defeat. According to a leaked Memorandum of Understanding, Washington and Tehran agree to the immediate and permanent end of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and commit not to resume hostilities. Lebanon's territorial integrity is guaranteed. The text, circulating as a draft, does not mention the conditions for the withdrawal of American forces, but makes clear that Iran does not yield on its sovereignty demands.

The context helps explain the outcome. In March, Iran destroyed almost 20% of Qatar's liquefied gas production capacity — according to sources cited by the BBC — in response to an Israeli attack on its largest gas field. Qatar, a key US ally, will suffer for years repairing the damage. The Gulf countries, gripped by panic, would have pressured Trump to avoid an escalation that threatened their energy industry.

The midterm elections also weighed in. With the war dragging on without a clear victory, Trump knew he could not wind up the conflict before the vote. The threat of electoral defeat forced him to swallow his bravado. Just weeks earlier he claimed to have annihilated all Iranian missiles; he now acknowledges that Tehran retains between 20% and 30% of its arsenal.

The agreement leaves Israel in an awkward position. Tel Aviv is not included in the memorandum and continues its bombings of Lebanon and Gaza. The question that remains open: is this a temporary de-escalation or the beginning of the end of American influence in the Middle East?