Turiel's 2024 energy predictions vs. reality

Turiel’s 2024 forecasts: Uranium, Ukraine, and Gas

In 2010, Spanish commentator Turiel calculated that diverting all global lithium production to electric cars would yield only "approximately 1.5 million" units annually, requiring 666 years to replace the world fleet. He claimed lithium would run out within a decade. More than ten years have passed, over 40 million electric vehicles have been manufactured, and batteries for laptops and phones remain plentiful. The same author publishes an annual energy forecast table every January. Turiel’s 2024 predictions have recently been put to the test.

What the 2024 forecast table announced

The document divides the year into eight areas. Oil was expected to move in a narrow band, between $70 and $100 per barrel, with acceleration only towards late 2024, when falling production began to exceed falling consumption. In the US, fracking production was expected to remain relatively stable, though with declining productivity. Natural gas would stay expensive, with record-high global production imminent and problems worsening mainly from 2026 onwards. Coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, was predicted to maintain high extraction rates or even rise, not just in India and China, but also in the US and Germany.

Uranium was the bleakest chapter. Annual extraction in 2022 fell 23% below the 2016 peak, with forecasts predicting another 4% drop in 2023. Kazakhstan, the world’s top producer, was already resorting to in-situ leaching, described in the text as the last-resort method to scrape the bottom of the barrel. With this outlook, the future of Spanish nuclear power plants seemed, according to the author, "pretty much sealed."

This was accompanied by riots due to fuel shortages in Latin America and Africa, spreading to more countries; open conflicts with special attention to Algeria and Nigeria; deep recession in Europe; and a deindustrialization crisis involving mass factory closures and hard-to-recover industrial capacity loss.

Ukraine: The forecast that didn’t stand up to the calendar

The most specific and exposed prediction was the end of the war in Ukraine. The text deemed it probable "during this 2024, and even during the first months of the year," amidst economic, material, and sarracena exhaustion, with a Russian victory and, above all, European defeat. The calendar did not cooperate. The war continued, and subsequent analysis points to factors absent from the table: the flow of foreign aid to Kyiv and the actual depletion of its resources. Some argue the front holds as long as material arrives; when it stops, the equation changes. This scenario pushes any resolution towards 2025.

Fracking, gas, and numbers that don't add up

Contrary to the predicted collapse of US shale production, reality was the opposite: the US continued drilling at a good pace, and the accelerated decline was postponed. In Europe, winter also disproved the harshest scenarios: no rolling blackouts occurred, and gas prices dropped until there was a surplus, exactly the opposite of what was announced. The memory of these forecasts is long, explaining the distrust surrounding each new edition.

The detail that slipped through: Chinese cars

In the automotive section, the table described Chinese models as "cheaper (and undoubtedly worse)." This nuance does not hold up. At equal category, Chinese cars compete on technology and software, match safety and build quality, and offer more for less money. In the entry-level range, Europe simply has no competitor. The consequence is not that the deindustrialization diagnosis is false—factory closures and loss of industrial muscle are real—but that the cause is not poorly managed European superiority, but rather the late and costly arrival at the transition.

Spain: Next Generation funds and the tourist who doesn't arrive

For Spain, the table anticipated an impact cushioned by European funds: the total allocation equals 10% of GDP, and the flow would theoretically continue until June 2026. The blow would be felt in the summer campaign, with fewer European tourists and lower spending. The text’s corollary is explicit: while this money flows, deterioration is masked. When it stops, it ceases to be masked.

The exercise now spans fifteen editions. The 2010 calculation on lithium remains available, including the figure of 666 years, while the count of electric cars manufactured since then exceeds it by nearly triple. Critics argue that out of two or three hundred predictions, none are considered serious. And every January, the table returns.