Stock Soared 140% in a Week, Then Dropped Back to €1.47

The Stock That Jumped 140% in a Week and Fell Back to €1.47

A stock can multiply its value in five trading sessions and still ruin those who bought it. That's exactly what peine to Codere in the autumn of 2013: it started September around €1.35, hit €2.89 by the end of the month — a 140% increase in seven days — and by mid-November, it was struggling around €1.47. In between, thousands of retail investors got in, trusting the prediction of a single man, a civil servant who managed a technical analysis blog and promised a target of €4.13. The story of how that narrative was built and collapsed — and what it reveals about the Spanish small-cap stock market — is the story of an old mechanism that keeps repeating.

The Secret Stock and the 50% Promise

It began with an enigmatic message: "I've already found another stock with great upside potential," said its author, for risk-takers, with a potential rise of "at least 50%." He didn't give the name. He invited anyone who wanted to know to send him a private message. Dozens did, trickle by trickle, with the inbox saturated, and the stock turned out to be Codere, the operator of betting shops and gaming halls.

The argument, on paper, had some structure: the company presented results on September 30, had "ended its downward trend," and its indicators pointed to an "upside breakout." The author himself acknowledged that the latest news "wasn't very positive" but maintained it was a "sure bet." No one at the time remembered, or almost no one, that an independent analysis service had responded in writing that the company's shares "continue to be worth zero euros" and that their quotation would be "as strange and unpredictable as what peine with Bankia shares."

The response to the original message summarized the climate: one participant admitted sending the private message because "curiosity killed the cat." Another made it clear without mincing words: "I'm always interested in seeing the stocks people suggest, although I never trust what's said on the internet."

From €1.35 to €2.89: The Boom Nobody Closed Out On Time

The stock lived up to the forecast. The prediction of a close at €1.50 was met almost to the cent. Then came the explosion: the stock surpassed "like butter" a resistance level that the recommender himself had identified at €2.26 and reached a high of €2.89. The move concluded with a 140% rise in one week.

This is where the narrative becomes interesting. Instead of taking profits, the story hardened. The new target became €4.13, with a "long extended wave" scenario that would take the price to €5.25. There was talk of "free rise up to €1.85." It was announced that on October 4, the stock would reach €2.80. And a key instruction was given: no stop-loss orders. "Stops are set mentally," he argued, because placing automatic orders "gives the big brokers clues about mass sentiment, and they usually sweep them away."

That detail — forgoing stops — is what turns a bet into a trap. Those who entered at the peak and didn't set a limit stayed in as the price began its downward journey.

Those Who Bought High and Groundhog Day

The final part of the material is a slow, repetitive descent. The quotes read in the exchange itself depict a relentless fall: 1.64, 1.62, 1.59, 1.57, 1.61 after the October auction, and in November, a trickle from 1.51 to 1.47 and to the closing €1.46. One participant summarized it with dark humor: "Groundhog Day and all." Another stated the obvious: "At this rate, €1.47 will see us end up worse than yesterday."

Testimonials of specific positions show the bias that anyone who has traded illiquid stocks warns about. One investor mentioned holding Campofrio at an average of €4.97, Solaria at 0.645, and Codere at 1.25, each waiting at their level without protective stops. Another admitted selling out of nervousness at €1.90 and then buying back at €2.37, "against the trend." The statistics of these operations are rarely told: what is remembered is the occasional success, not the average.

Why 'Chicharros' Move with €3,000

Throughout the exchange, several analyses appear that, without naming it, describe the structural problem of the Spanish small-cap stock market. "They're moving the price with €3,000," it was written sarcastically, asking someone to put "€300,000 in longs." Another participant put it more bluntly: companies with such low capitalization "are moved with peanuts."

The conclusion of that group of critics was implacable: in a penny stock ('chicharro'), "neither technical, nor fundamental, nor the mother of all Coderes matters. It's whatever the caretaker and the strong hands decide at any given moment." That's why some had migrated to US stocks, where "there's much more variety and without so much monkey business."

A more technical risk analysis added the other ingredient: in companies with low liquidity, "many can default at any moment," so the position should be "very small relative to our portfolio size." That reasoning is often shared; it's practiced less.

The End: Accusations, Complaint, and the Same Old Pattern

The material ends with the predictable turn. One participant reproduced the announcement of a supposed complaint filed with the Guardia Civil's Telematic Crimes unit against the person responsible for the recommendations, whom he identified by name and surname, for an alleged fraud offense. The reaction of the rest ranged from disbelief to resignation: someone compared the spectacle to a TV testimonial show, another pointed out that not even the site administrator himself escaped losses.

It's important to be cautious here: the complaint is an assertion made within the exchange, not a conviction. What is documented is the mechanism. A recommender without any accreditation builds a closed community — private messages, courses, blog promises, and lessons — gets it right once, capitalizes on that success, and amplifies the targets to impossible figures. When the price turns around, the community discovers there was no safety net.

There's an almost comical detail in the story: the author of the method also recommended channeling "positive energy" for the stock price to rise and maintained that anyone who thought negatively would be "punished." The mix of pseudo-technique and ritual is, in essence, the most reliable indicator that something is wrong.

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The pattern will repeat. Another stock with a reserved name will appear, another promise of extraordinary returns, another group of people tired of earning little and in a hurry for a big score. The question isn't if it will happen again. It's how many of those reading €1.47 on their screens today remember that it once hit €2.89.