Spanish election analysis: why the system fears abstention more than VOX

The July 23 analysis: why abstention scares the system

An analysis suggests that the system's true panic is not caused by VOX, but by voter abstention. The video analysis regarding the July 23 elections, shared in an economics forum, argues that the decline of ERC (a Catalan pro-independence party) and the deadlock in government formation are symptoms of a decomposing partitocracy. The author observes, accurately according to commenters, that the system antiestéticars the voter who stays home more than the one who votes far-right.

The July 23 analysis and the abstention thesis

According to viewers, the analysis video dedicates its first half to self-analysis and the second half to the main topic. One commenter summarizes the central thesis: «it explains the VOX situation very well and observes, I think correctly, the system's panic over abstention». The analysis also addresses the decline of ERC, its potential reasons, and speculates on the next steps for government formation.

The reaction is not unanimous. Some argue the video format is unbearable: «usually when that guy says he is analyzing X, the first half of the video is actually an analysis of himself». Others defend the analysis as being more honest than what is read in traditional media.

Partitocracy and the deadlock in government formation

The analysis shifts toward government formation. One participant summarizes it as trinc: «The partitocracy shows its most infamous face precisely during government formation, or how minority, fanatic, and corrupt parties like Junts condition politics for all Spaniards». The idea that minority parties dictate the governability of the entire country is the core of the discontent.

In response, another participant downplays the deadlock: «it doesn't matter if Sanxe (Pedro Sánchez) makes a pact with the Catalans. THE PP MAJORITY IN THE SENATE WOULD OVERTURN IT». Therefore, the discussion is not just about the analysis, but whether institutional deadlock has a way out.

Abstention as a political tool

Abstention triggers the most intense debate. One participant defends it as a consequence rather than a goal: «the fact that abstaining is not an end in itself, but a consequence, has been repeated a thousand times». Another adds that if people stop voting en masse, the system's discredit will be total, opening a pre-revolutionary period.

Objections arise quickly: «it doesn't matter what the % of abstention is, as long as there is 1 vote, the whole setup keeps running». The counterargument is that abstention changes nothing as long as institutions continue to function with a single vote. The discussion grows heated between those who see abstention as a weapon and those who see it as a futile gesture.

Postal voting and suspicions of fraud

One participant makes an unproven accusation: «Postal voting is the fraud. They have inflated 2M votes and those 2M gave victory to the PSOE». The claim is not accompanied by any evidence and is mixed with the idea that abstention inflates postal voting counts.

Another participant asks for proof: «Do you have any proof that the results provided by Indra come from that count?». The response is that the votes have already been destroyed and cannot be counted. The suspicion remains, unverified.

The decline of VOX and the future of the right

The analysis also touches on VOX. One participant claims that «VOX is tearing itself apart from the inside... just like Ciudadanos once did». The comparison with Ciudadanos suggests the far-right party could trinc the same path of decomposition.

Another participant adds that «with the cowardly far-right, the shitty pogre have exhausted their arsenal», referring to the idea that labels will no longer work when a harder far-right emerges. The discussion about VOX is intertwined with the critique of the partitocracy.

Democracy as a tool, not an end

A current of thought in the analysis maintains that democracy is merely an instrument: «There is no such thing as good democracy. Democracy is just a tool. Nothing more, nothing less». The comparison with a hoe is used to argue that it can be used to grow tomatoes or to kill someone.

In contrast, another participant argues that «States with systems similar to those proposed by Trevijanism (USA, UK, France, etc.) are already seeing grave social conflicts». The discussion shifts toward Trevijanism and its proposals for the separation of powers.

The Senate as a counterweight

The PP majority in the Senate is presented as an argument to overturn government pacts. One participant summarizes: «THE PP MAJORITY IN THE SENATE WOULD OVERTURN IT». The idea is that the Senate can block Executive initiatives.

Another participant suggests that «the dog might be putting on a show of negotiations with Pigdemont (Catalan government) only to later say the conditions are unacceptable». Speculation about a repeat election looms over the debate.

Abstention as a personal experience

One participant shares their experience: «I am 52 and I have voted a few times. In these last 10 years, I have given up the habit». They describe abstention as a liberation: «the internal feeling of the electoral event... is much more satisfying». They compare it to Eurovision.

The analysis reaches no definitive conclusion. One participant summarizes: «one gets tired, honestly. All the information is there, in dozens of YouTube channels and all over the internet». The discussion remains open.

What will happen when abstention stops being a gesture and becomes the majority?