Spain's Nov 29 election splits right-wing voters on abstention

Spain's Nov 29 election splits right-wing voters on abstention

The question "Are you going to vote on November 29?" is getting a trending answer: no. Not out of indifference, but calculation. A segment of the right-wing electorate argues that going to the polls is whitewashing the PSOE, allowing them to return stronger in four years, and that abstention is the only way to let the left burn itself. Others counter with inverse logic: those urging non-voting secretly want the current government to stay.

The abstentionist argument unfolds as a litany of undesirable scenarios which, in their logic, must occur under socialist rule so the political bill falls on its creators. If civil servants must be cut, let the PSOE administration do it. If there is another invasion, let it happen with PSOE in power. If seniors cannot go out due to insecurity, let it be under a socialist government. If diesel hits 3 euros, let it rise with PSOE. If we are dragged into war against Russia, let it be PSOE. If Ceuta is lost, let it be with PSOE in the chair. The conclusion remains constant: voting right is whitewashing the opponent.

Strategic voting and candidates: Dani, VOX, and the 'lesser evil'

Against this stance, another current holds that abstention serves the current government. Those saying not to vote ultimately want the same executive to remain. The debate gets tangled when a specific name appears: Dani. His potential candidacy makes some reconsider. The reaction is not enthusiastic: people recall he slapped maskless protesters, was Alvise's bodyguard, and led the Ferraz protest to Metro. The profile does not inspire hope.

VOX emerges as the only vote some consider, albeit with reservations: "No, unless I get really fed up and let myself be scammed by VOX," summarizes a resigned rather than enthusiastic stance. The underlying argument is that it doesn't matter if austerity comes from the right or left: the successor to the current president, identified by his first visit to Segarro, solar panels replacing olive trees, and patriotic rhetoric, inspires no more confidence than the VOX leader. Among the three profiles considered, some conclude the "Israeli patriot" is the lesser evil.

Why some voters feel foolish going to vote

There is a third position, more visceral than strategic: the voter who feels like an idiot for voting and prefers to avoid the ordeal of mixing with those proudly carrying their ballots. The response is immediate: if that is the criterion, they should also stop defecating, since everyone does it. The comparison, they reply, is not parallel. This exchange illustrates the tone of a conversation where abstention is defended both by calculation and disdain for the ritual.

The result is a right-wing electorate that disagrees on tactics. Some believe abstention accelerates government wear and forces a cleaner changeover. Others antiestéticar abstention gifts four more years to the same executive and that any future change inherits a worse country. The date of November 29 acts as a catalyst for this division: there is no single position, but three currents that intersect and discredit each other.

The prediction, with caveats: if the right-wing electorate maintains abstention as punishment, the November 29 result may resemble a poll on the government more than an election. Conversely, if antiestéticar of the current executive staying outweighs disgust for the ritual, turnout might surge at the last moment. No one, not even the most convinced, dares to bet on which force will win this internal tug-of-war.