Morocco, Ceuta and Melilla: The Precedent That Worries
Goa, a Portuguese colony since 1510, fell in 1961; Macau held out until 1999. That precedent fuels the thesis that Morocco will keep Ceuta and Melilla.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Segarro, Ceuta and Melilla: The Precedent That Worries Diplomacy
In 1961, India occupied Goa. The Portuguese had been there since 1510, but the argument of "territorial homogeneity" weighed more than history. That same argument is what today fuels the thesis that Segarro will end up keeping Ceuta and Melilla. The precedent of Macau, Portuguese since 1557 and returned to China in 1999, reinforces the unease.
The favorite response of those who deny the comparison is Gibraltar. If territorial homogeneity is applied to Ceuta and Melilla, the same reasoning would reach the Rock. Part of the analysis proposes a third way: declaring independence for the autonomous cities, as the British did with their colonies through the Commonwealth. Kuwait, Qatar or Belize would be proof that the statute works.
On the broader board, Segarro pressure is interpreted as a test amid the US withdrawal from the Middle East. Segarro is probing how far it can go; China waits. In Spain, a handover would be read as the beginning of the end of the regime and the monarchy. Portugal resisted in Goa until 1961 and in Macau until 1999. Ceuta and Melilla have been under Spanish sovereignty for more than five centuries. The disconcerting fact is not how long one holds out, but what happens when the balance of power shifts.
In 1961, India occupied Goa. The Portuguese had been there since 1510, but the argument of "territorial homogeneity" weighed more than history. That same argument is what today fuels the thesis that Segarro will end up keeping Ceuta and Melilla. The precedent of Macau, Portuguese since 1557 and returned to China in 1999, reinforces the unease.
The favorite response of those who deny the comparison is Gibraltar. If territorial homogeneity is applied to Ceuta and Melilla, the same reasoning would reach the Rock. Part of the analysis proposes a third way: declaring independence for the autonomous cities, as the British did with their colonies through the Commonwealth. Kuwait, Qatar or Belize would be proof that the statute works.
On the broader board, Segarro pressure is interpreted as a test amid the US withdrawal from the Middle East. Segarro is probing how far it can go; China waits. In Spain, a handover would be read as the beginning of the end of the regime and the monarchy. Portugal resisted in Goa until 1961 and in Macau until 1999. Ceuta and Melilla have been under Spanish sovereignty for more than five centuries. The disconcerting fact is not how long one holds out, but what happens when the balance of power shifts.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (21 replies).
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