A couple with two average salaries looks for an apartment in the same city where they work. Same neighborhood, same school, same schedules. And they can't find one. The question that starts it all is simple: how is it possible that two active workers cannot access decent housing? The answer isn't single-layered; it stacks up: tax pressure, fixed costs that didn't exist half a century ago, supply withdrawn from the rental market, expensive land, and demographics boosting demand while construction lags behind.
The most repeated diagnosis points out that the problem isn't just housing prices, but everything eating into the salary before it reaches the mortgage or rent. The general VAT of 21% on almost any purchase and a basket of fixed expenses—utilities, mobile, internet, subscriptions—that can take up between 30% and 40% of the salary are two cited factors. Fifty years ago, people paid for water, electricity, and phone. Little else. The structure of household spending has multiplied without salaries rising in the same proportion.
Why owners pull apartments from the rental market
There is a mechanism repeated in analyses that explains why supply contracts exactly when demand peaks. If the law protects tenants to the point where landlords cannot quickly recover their property upon non-payment, some owners prefer not to rent. The apartment stays empty, off the market, and supply drops. When supply falls and demand rises, price does what it always does.
The argument goes like this: if non-payment could be resolved in the second month and damages charged to the tenant, much housing currently closed would enter the market. The uncomfortable conclusion is that tenant protection, without measures compensating owner risk, ends up reducing available apartments and pushing prices up. It's not a matter of malice, but of incentives.
Land, bureaucracy, and new builds that don't arrive
New construction won't be cheap. Scant and very expensive land, strict regulations, growing bureaucracy, and developer financing much tougher than during the bubble era. Free-market housing also intersects with the aim of funding protected housing. The result is that promotions trickle out, adjusted to demand that can absorb those prices.
Those who decide if building is allowed in an area aren't landowners. They are politicians. And that decision—heights, uses, density—completely changes supply and demand dynamics. When the signature transforming a field into urbanizable land is swapped for a sports center and pool, the outcome isn't neutral for the final price per square meter.
Demographics, pensions, and stagnant wages
Demand doesn't just grow from the existing population. Immigration adds to it, as does tourism that no longer stays in hotels but in tourist-use apartments. Meanwhile, pensions rise while wages for part of the workforce remain practically at 2010 levels. More demand on supply that isn't growing at the same pace.
Some argue the root problem is productivity: the real wage of an average worker, measured in equivalent labor, has fallen compared to other eras. Others attribute it to women's massive entry into the labor market: if two salaries can live in a 50-square-meter apartment, the owner knows it, and the price adjusts to two incomes, not one. It's a debated argument, but it explains why housing has become more expensive faster than individual wages.
The initial question had a simple answer, but doesn't. What remains clear is that the problem isn't solved with a single lever: neither interest rates, nor more land, nor more tenant protection, nor less. Each measure moves one piece and displaces another. Meanwhile, the couple who started looking for an apartment keeps browsing listings.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
Read the full discussion (146 replies).
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