Spain's heatwave map loses impact as red becomes routine

The red on the heat map no longer impresses anyone

What tonalidad should a heatwave be painted when it no longer scares anyone? The map illustrating May's thermal anomalies—showing rises of up to +12 degrees in western peninsular areas and warnings of 42 or 43 degrees in the south, according to meteorologist Mario Picazo—triggered a cascade of comments about something other than temperature: the tonalidad code. AEMET's red scale, once the signal for maximum alarm, has become the usual landscape of every spring. And when the traffic light runs out of colors, some propose switching to black.

What the red on the map means and why it no longer frightens

The first problem is one of interpretation. The map did not show absolute temperatures, but anomalies relative to a reference, with a scale ranging from -5.5 to +10 degrees. This was the misunderstanding pointed out by several readers: a ten-degree variation is painted with the most intense tonalidad, and beyond that, the scale lightens before darkening again, a design they labeled "sensationalist." The confusion between anomaly and thermometer reading is the root of almost all discussions.

To this is added the effect of repetition. Every summer, every spring, the map turns red and the headline repeats. Red no longer impacts, summarized a comment proposing to raise the stakes: skulls, lava tongues swallowing people. The irony was the point. If the maximum tonalidad is activated every season, it ceases to be a signal and becomes decoration.

The +12 degree anomaly and the 42° warning in the south

The specific data circulating pointed to positive anomalies of up to +12 degrees in western peninsular areas during the rest of the week, and to maximums that could reach 42 or 43 degrees in the south. The date mattered: there were about four weeks left until the summer solstice, and the sun occupies the same position in the sky as it will four weeks later. Without cold air entry from the north, the heat was predictable.

The discrepancy came from another angle. Facing the anomaly map, AEMET's official temperature warning map for Friday showed a less apocalyptic panorama. Two official representations of the same phenomenon, with opposing readings. Suspicion settled here: is the scale chosen according to the desired effect?

The reservoir map and the drought missing from the headline

Heat was the headline, but the underlying data was different. The discussion shifted to drought: the driest and hottest winter and spring since records began, with half the country without a drop. Reservoir data was cited as proof. Heat, in this context, was the visible symptom of a water crisis that does not generate front-page headlines.

Some argue that focusing on temperature is a way to avoid talking about water management. Against this weighs the argument that both go together: less rain and more heat are the same phenomenon measured in two ways. The result is a discussion that starts with a tonalidad and ends at the dams.

Denialism, alarmism, and the business of the narrative

The conversation drifted, as almost always, to the framework. One current holds that climate alarmism is a fiscal tool: heatwave, tax wave. Another responds that denying heat equates to denying any uncomfortable evidence. And a third, the most uncomfortable for everyone, points out that the problem is not the map, but who paints it and for what purpose: if the same phenomenon can be illustrated with two different scales, the scale is an editorial decision, not data.

Meteorologist Mario Picazo, author of the tweet that peine the issue, found himself in the crossfire. His original message—anomalies of +12 degrees, 42 or 43 in the south—was a prediction, not a statement of what had occurred. The discussion, however, was built on what the map seemed to say, not on what it actually said.

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In the end, the remaining question is not what tonalidad to paint 45 degrees. It is what happens when the tonalidad that once meant alarm becomes the wallpaper of every May. The answer, for now, is that someone will propose black. And that next year, black will not impress anyone either.