Spain's grandchildren law is a sideshow: postal voting is where fraud risk lies
Postal voting in Spain grew from 2.4% to 10% of all ballots between 2011 and 2023. The dispute over 163,000 residents abroad affects only about 15,000 actual votes.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The institutional fight to add 163,000 Spaniards living abroad to the electoral roll affects, given the CERA turnout of 9% in 2023, roughly 15,000 votes. Meanwhile, national postal voting rose from 590,000 ballots in 2011 to 2,471,935 in July 2023.
A debate has been dominating headlines for weeks: whether the State should add some **163,000 Spaniards** living abroad to the electoral roll, with the Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court, the Ombudsman and the political parties trading written arguments. The figure is impressive until you do the math.
## The arithmetic of the CERA vote
In the July 2023 general election, turnout among Spaniards registered abroad —the so-called CERA vote— hovered around **9%**. Applied to those 163,000 voters in dispute, the real number of ballots at stake is around **15,000**. That is a figure that, on its own, would not swing a seat in most provinces.
The census of residents abroad exceeds **three million** people. That is the volume that really matters, and managing it involves consulates, postal services and mail batches all the way to the count. There is no institutional battle there, no headlines, no constitutional appeals.
## Postal voting quadrupled
The data from recent elections tells another story. In November 2011, some **590,000** postal votes were cast, **2.4%** of the total. By June 2016 the figure had risen to **1,350,000**, **5.6%**. And in July 2023 it reached **2,471,935** ballots, **10%** of the total.
That jump cannot be explained by electoral roll growth alone. It is a structural shift in how the right to vote is exercised, and it puts the postal procedure at the centre of the system. Any debate on the integrity of the count that ignores this trend is missing the point.
## The suspicion with no evidence
Some argue that the clash over those 163,000 voters is a decoy: a fight the Government knows it will lose and that lets it stage-manage the image of institutions working, while attention is diverted from the three million residents abroad and from national postal voting. It is a hypothesis doing the rounds on social media and forums, and it should be said clearly that **there is no evidence to back it**. Controls on the CERA vote and on postal voting exist and are regulated; whether they are sufficient is another matter.
What is verifiable is the asymmetry: a first-rank institutional conflict over some 15,000 potential votes, and a procedure that handles nearly two and a half million ballots without comparable public debate. If the aim was to draw attention to the system, the effect has been the opposite.
Before drawing conclusions about fraud, it is worth remembering that any electoral challenge is settled through the courts and on evidence, not on hunches.
A debate has been dominating headlines for weeks: whether the State should add some **163,000 Spaniards** living abroad to the electoral roll, with the Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court, the Ombudsman and the political parties trading written arguments. The figure is impressive until you do the math.
## The arithmetic of the CERA vote
In the July 2023 general election, turnout among Spaniards registered abroad —the so-called CERA vote— hovered around **9%**. Applied to those 163,000 voters in dispute, the real number of ballots at stake is around **15,000**. That is a figure that, on its own, would not swing a seat in most provinces.
The census of residents abroad exceeds **three million** people. That is the volume that really matters, and managing it involves consulates, postal services and mail batches all the way to the count. There is no institutional battle there, no headlines, no constitutional appeals.
## Postal voting quadrupled
The data from recent elections tells another story. In November 2011, some **590,000** postal votes were cast, **2.4%** of the total. By June 2016 the figure had risen to **1,350,000**, **5.6%**. And in July 2023 it reached **2,471,935** ballots, **10%** of the total.
That jump cannot be explained by electoral roll growth alone. It is a structural shift in how the right to vote is exercised, and it puts the postal procedure at the centre of the system. Any debate on the integrity of the count that ignores this trend is missing the point.
## The suspicion with no evidence
Some argue that the clash over those 163,000 voters is a decoy: a fight the Government knows it will lose and that lets it stage-manage the image of institutions working, while attention is diverted from the three million residents abroad and from national postal voting. It is a hypothesis doing the rounds on social media and forums, and it should be said clearly that **there is no evidence to back it**. Controls on the CERA vote and on postal voting exist and are regulated; whether they are sufficient is another matter.
What is verifiable is the asymmetry: a first-rank institutional conflict over some 15,000 potential votes, and a procedure that handles nearly two and a half million ballots without comparable public debate. If the aim was to draw attention to the system, the effect has been the opposite.
Before drawing conclusions about fraud, it is worth remembering that any electoral challenge is settled through the courts and on evidence, not on hunches.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (3 replies).
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