Spain's Aug 1 census and 'Grandchildren Law' explain Nov 29 election date

The August 1 Census and the Grandchildren Law: The Hidden Logic of the November 29 Election

There is a date that, according to a theory circulating in digital forums, explains why the general elections were called for November 29: August 1. On that day, the electoral register used for these polls was finalized, pursuant to Article 39.1 of the LOREG (General Electoral System Act), which sets the current register as the one closed on the first day of the second month prior to the call. This seemingly innocuous administrative detail supports the thesis spreading through online chatter: the call was not so much a plebiscite on Maricarmen or the protests as avoiding the Supreme Court's interim measures against the so-called Grandchildren Law.

The described sequence is as trinc. The Supreme Court takes interim measures against the application of the Grandchildren Law. Panic spreads at Moncloa, because much of the electoral hope rested on those new voters. A way out is sought and found in the calendar: calling elections before the Supreme Court can intervene regarding the register. The Moncloa machine, with the invaluable help of Cándido Conde Pumpido, would have devised the Maricarmen issue, the protests, and anti-eviction decrees post-facto as cover and campaign leitmotif. The true motive, they insist, is another.

What is the Grandchildren Law and why does the census matter?

The Grandchildren Law, in its broadest formulation, allows descendants of Spaniards who left for any reason to access nationality and, with it, the right to vote. The figure cited is 600,000 potential new voters in Argentina, Cuba, Venezuela, and other countries. Most will not actually vote, but the Government doesn't care: what matters is that they are registered and that the 'begged vote' system has disappeared, which would greatly facilitate consular management.

That is the crux. The CERA (Residents Abroad Electoral Census) vote is counted separately and arrives days after the in-person count. This means any manipulation in that segment is unknown until the overall result is already fixed. And with 600,000 newly registered voters, distributed in specific constituencies, the effect can be decisive. As a circulating calculation summarizes: 600,000 votes nationally are one or two seats, but well-placed in the last seat of each province they can translate into 20 or 30 real seats. The D'Hondt method does the rest.

Postal Vote and CERA: Where is the Loophole?

The electoral mechanism has two channels for non-in-person voting. Normal postal votes arrive at the polling station and are mixed with in-person votes before the election night count. There is no way to know what percentage corresponds to each. The CERA vote, from residents abroad, is counted separately and known days later. Some point to this combination as the system's weak point.

The experience of those who have voted from abroad is not encouraging. There are accounts of ballots arriving three weeks after the elections, missing documentation, and consulates hundreds of kilometers away. A striking case: someone who processed their vote for the NATO referendum never received anything, returned to their city on the designated day, and upon presenting themselves at the polling station were told that they had already voted.

The Supreme Court, Constitutional Court, and the Calendar

The legal knot lies in whether the Supreme Court can prevent those who obtained nationality via the Grandchildren Law from voting. The Supreme Court reportedly has until October 12 to make a decision. But even if it does, the State Legal Service would appeal to the Constitutional Court and, with Pumpido in charge, the interim measures would fall. It is the repeated argument: in this country, the Supreme Court does not have the final word.

Some argue that inclusion in the census is an administrative act and, as such, subject to annulment if produced outside the law. Others recall that the census is already closed and that votes, if allowed, will appear one way or another. The fundamental question is whether the system has mechanisms to prevent this. Given the precedents, the answer is not reassuring.

What is at Stake on November 29?

Beyond the concrete mechanism, November 29 is presented as a decisive appointment. Some describe it as the last opportunity to dismantle Sanchismo, warning that a Rajoy 2 would be equally lethal. If Sánchez governs, they repeat, game over. The hypothesis of 50 disappointed seats would leave Sánchez in power until 2030. The scenario of 230 seats for PP and Vox seems improbable: it would require 25 seats in Catalonia and 6 or 7 in the Basque Country.

Fraud with foreign votes is simpler than with normal postal votes, they insist. Consuls have mostly been replaced by allies, and the custody and traceability of votes leaves much to be desired. With those tools, large-scale fraud is served up on a platter, they conclude. If the PSOE can do all that, one voice points out, it is because the opposition allows it. And if it allows it, it does not exist.

---

The date of November 29 is not accidental. The census closed on August 1 is neither. And the Grandchildren Law, with its 600,000 names, is the piece that fits everything together. The rest, including Maricarmen, is script.