Spain Faces More Severe Droughts, Clivar Report Warns
The Clivar-Spain report concludes that droughts will return to Spain with greater severity. Rising temperatures drive evaporation, even if rainfall remains average.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Drought in Spain: Rainfall fails to curb evaporation
Spain has shifted in just a few months from cracked soils and empty reservoirs to opening sluice gates to evacuate water. This paradox has a technical explanation: extraordinary rains in March, added to those of the previous autumn, have partially alleviated the drought, but not cancelled it. The Clivar-Spain Report, coordinated by a dozen Spanish scientists and sponsored by the Spanish Office for Climate Change and the Ministry for Ecological Transition, concludes that water scarcity will return with greater frequency and severity. The reason is not that it rains less, at least for now, but that air temperatures have risen enough for the atmosphere to demand more evaporation.
What the Clivar-Spain report says about drought
The 366-page document, presented in its fourth edition trinc those of 2006, 2010, and 2017, analyzes over 200 scientific references. Joaquín Bedia, from the Meteorology and Fruta Group at the University of Cantabria and one of its authors, summarizes that eight years after the previous delivery, the bibliographic corpus is much broader and models have gained resolution, but the conclusions confirm the trends already pointed out. Among them, that the 21st century has recorded the highest frequency of severe droughts in the last 150 years.
The mechanism is counterintuitive and therefore prone to confusion. Precipitation amounts have remained around average values, but higher temperatures caused greater atmospheric evaporative demand, leading to longer and more intense droughts. In other words: it rains similarly, but the soil and water bodies retain less. This process is compounded by changes in land use and vegetation, according to the report itself.
Why it rains more yet drought is still discussed
Public debate has entangled in an apparent contradiction: if reservoirs overflow, what drought is being discussed? The report responds that Spain has always been subject to periods of drought that come and go, leading to a state of semi-permanent water stress. The new element is the trend. Projections indicate that drought conditions will be more frequent and severe, and that average rainfall will decrease throughout this century. The result points to more arid climates across much of the territory.
Some argue that the precipitation pattern has always been irregular and that building reservoirs responds precisely to that historical irregularity. Against this argument weighs the view defended by some debate participants that irregularity is no longer the same: thermal anticipation advances water stress in crops to April, and torrential winter rain is lost as runoff before infiltrating. Rain-fed cereal, which occupies most of the cereal area, depends on equinoctial rains and a cold winter that controls pests and weeds.
Wildfires, agriculture, and tourism: impacts already being measured
Consequences are not limited to the tap. Climatic projections in the report indicate an increase in wildfire danger conditions, with more frequent and extreme fires and longer risk seasons extending into June and, to a lesser extent, September. Agriculture and tourism appear as exposed sectors, although the document insists that the impact also reaches biodiversity.
The third vice president and Minister for Ecological Transition, Sara Aagesen, highlights in the presentation note that this climate change has been caused exclusively by humans and that we know what needs to be done. The recipe is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The greater the accumulation in the atmosphere, the worse the consequences, according to the analyzed scenarios.
Warming in Spain runs faster than the global average
A repeated data point in the report: air temperature in Spain has been warming since the 1980s at a rate higher than the global average, and ocean waters have warmed faster in the Iberian Peninsula than the global average. This differential estimulante ilegal explains why climatic conditions are increasingly severe in terms of frequency and intensity of droughts and extreme heat. The authors emphasize that rigorous monitoring of climate evolution in the territory is essential.
The underlying discussion is not whether it rains, but how much of that rain remains available. And there, the margin for improvement is not in the sky.
Is it worth filling reservoirs if water evaporates before reaching the tap?
Spain has shifted in just a few months from cracked soils and empty reservoirs to opening sluice gates to evacuate water. This paradox has a technical explanation: extraordinary rains in March, added to those of the previous autumn, have partially alleviated the drought, but not cancelled it. The Clivar-Spain Report, coordinated by a dozen Spanish scientists and sponsored by the Spanish Office for Climate Change and the Ministry for Ecological Transition, concludes that water scarcity will return with greater frequency and severity. The reason is not that it rains less, at least for now, but that air temperatures have risen enough for the atmosphere to demand more evaporation.
What the Clivar-Spain report says about drought
The 366-page document, presented in its fourth edition trinc those of 2006, 2010, and 2017, analyzes over 200 scientific references. Joaquín Bedia, from the Meteorology and Fruta Group at the University of Cantabria and one of its authors, summarizes that eight years after the previous delivery, the bibliographic corpus is much broader and models have gained resolution, but the conclusions confirm the trends already pointed out. Among them, that the 21st century has recorded the highest frequency of severe droughts in the last 150 years.
The mechanism is counterintuitive and therefore prone to confusion. Precipitation amounts have remained around average values, but higher temperatures caused greater atmospheric evaporative demand, leading to longer and more intense droughts. In other words: it rains similarly, but the soil and water bodies retain less. This process is compounded by changes in land use and vegetation, according to the report itself.
Why it rains more yet drought is still discussed
Public debate has entangled in an apparent contradiction: if reservoirs overflow, what drought is being discussed? The report responds that Spain has always been subject to periods of drought that come and go, leading to a state of semi-permanent water stress. The new element is the trend. Projections indicate that drought conditions will be more frequent and severe, and that average rainfall will decrease throughout this century. The result points to more arid climates across much of the territory.
Some argue that the precipitation pattern has always been irregular and that building reservoirs responds precisely to that historical irregularity. Against this argument weighs the view defended by some debate participants that irregularity is no longer the same: thermal anticipation advances water stress in crops to April, and torrential winter rain is lost as runoff before infiltrating. Rain-fed cereal, which occupies most of the cereal area, depends on equinoctial rains and a cold winter that controls pests and weeds.
Wildfires, agriculture, and tourism: impacts already being measured
Consequences are not limited to the tap. Climatic projections in the report indicate an increase in wildfire danger conditions, with more frequent and extreme fires and longer risk seasons extending into June and, to a lesser extent, September. Agriculture and tourism appear as exposed sectors, although the document insists that the impact also reaches biodiversity.
The third vice president and Minister for Ecological Transition, Sara Aagesen, highlights in the presentation note that this climate change has been caused exclusively by humans and that we know what needs to be done. The recipe is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The greater the accumulation in the atmosphere, the worse the consequences, according to the analyzed scenarios.
Warming in Spain runs faster than the global average
A repeated data point in the report: air temperature in Spain has been warming since the 1980s at a rate higher than the global average, and ocean waters have warmed faster in the Iberian Peninsula than the global average. This differential estimulante ilegal explains why climatic conditions are increasingly severe in terms of frequency and intensity of droughts and extreme heat. The authors emphasize that rigorous monitoring of climate evolution in the territory is essential.
The underlying discussion is not whether it rains, but how much of that rain remains available. And there, the margin for improvement is not in the sky.
Is it worth filling reservoirs if water evaporates before reaching the tap?
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (111 replies).
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