Silver Price Surge: Ounce Jumps from €13.73 to €16.89 in Thirteen Months

Silver Ounce Falls to €12.72 in January 2016, Then Rebounds 33% by September

Anyone who bought the first issue of 2000 peseta silver coins in 1994 would need to sell each piece today for around €20.50 just to break even, after adjusting for inflation using INE data. Over two decades to end up in the same place. That's the uncomfortable reality for any investment in minted metal. Yet, between August 2015 and September 2016, the silver ounce did the opposite of what logic suggested: it first plunged and then staged a rally that left gold looking over its shoulder. The silver price went from €13.73 per ounce to €12.72 in January 2016, and then climbed to €16.89 in September, a 32.8% increase in just eight months.

From $15.24 to $18.95: The Rally That Caught Everyone Off Guard

On August 15, 2015, the ounce was trading at €13.73 ($15.24). Five months later, on January 18, 2016, the price had plummeted to €12.72 ($13.91). During that period, the consensus was clear: a dire commodities environment, weak industrial demand, and a strong dollar. Anyone predicting a short-term price target was looking downwards.

Then came September, and the ounce reached €16.89 ($18.95). Those who bought at the January low and sold at the September high pocketed a 33% profit in eight months. Investors who bet on the metal through leveraged instruments and timed it right were talking, literally, about 100% returns from the start of the year.

The 29.4% Plunge That Dragged Down the Entire Sector

On September 28, 2015, the Swiss commodities giant Glencore lost 29.4% of its stock value in a single trading session. Silver closed that day down 3.68%. This wasn't a coincidence: the group doesn't just trade metals; it's one of the world's largest intermediaries for oil, corn, copper, and virtually any commodity that can be shipped. When its viability is questioned, the foundation of the entire sector trembles.

The lingering question then—and one that still lacks a clear answer—is why a mining company that doesn't significantly extract silver influences the ounce's price. The uncomfortable truth: the metals market isn't driven by physical fundamentals; it's driven by balance sheet jitters and liquidity.

Why Does Silver Rise When Commodities Fall?

In theory, a metal with extensive industrial use should plummet when industry falters. It didn't. The prevailing explanation was that during the upward trend, its monetary character outweighed its industrial role: strong hands sought refuge from a turbulent financial summer. Inventory data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, showing sharp drops in stocks within a single session, fueled this theory.

The bearish scenario, equally defensible, argues that without a real industrial recovery, the rally is a mirage, and the metal will trade sideways for years. Both interpretations coexisted within the same price range. And both held a degree of truth.

How Many Grams of Silver Can €1,000 Buy?

This is where the numbers become telling, and where a detailed, piece-by-piece calculation yields surprising differences. With €1,000, one could buy 50 Canadian $20 coins, totaling 398 grams of silver. In Spanish face-value coins, 78 pieces amounted to 1,298.70 grams. And with Koala or Kookaburra ounces bought from German websites at €18 each, the same amount of money yielded 1,727.60 grams.

The conclusion is obvious and therefore bothersome: if the goal is to accumulate metal, coins with no face value premium yield a quarter less. The karlillo (a type of silver coin) makes sense as a stop-loss when the metal is cheap; it loses its advantage when the ounce is bought below €17.

Bullion, Premium, and the Overpriced Returns That Never Come

The 2015 American Eagle went from €17.25 to €23.40 in a matter of months, while the 2016 version barely started at €16.35. The Arca series did the same. And private mint versions of the lunar series traded below €20 while standard issues exceeded €24.

The key, repeated ad nauseam, is the mintage. An unlimited issue minted on demand can end up with five million pieces or two hundred thousand. No attractive design covers this risk. And pure collectibles—pieces in excellent condition—are another market: one expert claims a good historical ounce is worth at least €3,000, while another points out that the market for such pieces is so narrow that selling one takes longer than selling a common piece.

Silver Lingers While Bitcoin Breaks Records

Years after the rally, the landscape has shifted dramatically: silver trading at what are described as ridiculous values, coin sales at lows, and bitcoin shattering records. Against this backdrop, the million-dollar question arose: isn't this the perfect contrarian indicator to take positions? The tepid answer: first, we need to see antiestéticar in the markets, and the Nasdaq at all-time highs isn't signaling it.

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In November 2012, a British newspaper published that silver would reach $165 per ounce by October 2015. When the date arrived, the ounce was trading at $15.24. None of the journalists who wrote that headline have returned the money.