Saudi Arabia Court BRICS, Leaving the West Without Its Oil

Saudi Arabia Court BRICS, Leaving the West Without Its Oil

What happens when the world’s top crude exporter stops favoring buyers who offer less and lecture more? This is the core debate surrounding Saudi Arabia’s potential entry into the BRICS bloc. The unconfirmed news has sparked intense speculation, ranging from seeing it as a checkmate for NATO to viewing it as purely commercial interests. The underlying trigger is the EU’s zero-emission agenda and its ban on combustion vehicles by 2035.

What is the INSTC and Why It Matters More Than a Statement

While Saudi accession is debated, a less visible fact has emerged: the inauguration of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) after 22 years of construction. The route links Russia to the Indian Ocean via the Caspian Sea and Iran, bypassing the Suez Canal and Europe. Saudi Arabia also benefits from this infrastructure, redrawing commercial maps without Brussels or Washington having a reserved seat.

The optimistic scenario for Moscow and Tehran is that this corridor helps bypass sanctions and tariffs. The pessimistic view is that it may take years to compete with traditional maritime transport. However, the direction is clear: commercial flows are seeking routes outside Anglo-Saxon control.

The Oil Europe Says It No Longer Wants

The paradox is hard to ignore. The EU, one of the world’s richest regions, has banned combustion vehicles by 2035. Saudi Arabia, whose main revenue comes from crude, sees this timeline as an existential threat. This is not about sympathy; if its customers stop buying, the country risks shifting from Mediterranean luxury residences to negotiating over dates.

Some argue this is smoke, claiming diesel transport will persist for decades because the energy transition is materially impossible at the announced pace. However, regulatory decisions are already made, and manufacturers have committed billions in investments. The key point is that Riyadh has understood the message: if Europe does not want its oil, others will. China and India, for example.

Can the West Trust Its Historical Allies?

The discussion quickly shifts to the reliability of alliances. Some analysts note that the United States has abandoned strategic partners when convenient, and Saudi Arabia is no exception. Others argue that Saudis have never had friends, only interests, and moving toward BRICS is simply diversifying clients.

The BRICS bloc is not a military alliance or ideological club but an economic forum gaining weight with each member. If Saudi Arabia joins, the group would control a larger share of global energy production. In the context of a trade war between China and the United States, this is no minor detail.

The Role of the Dollar and the War No One Calls a War

Underlying all this is a recurring issue when discussing BRICS: the control of the dollar as a reserve currency. Some argue the real conflict is not Ukraine or Gaza, but the dispute between China and the United States over financial flows and energy resources. Western countries, dependent on imports to maintain their standard of living, would be the main losers in this tug-of-war.

According to this view, those who built their prosperity on cheap energy imports and outsourced production suffer the most. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, plays its cards. And if oil stops flowing north, winter becomes interesting.

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Ultimately, the question is not whether Saudi Arabia betrays the West. It is whether the West realizes that the customer is no longer the one who pays, but the one who needs. And given current events, that is certainly not Brussels.