Santander: Hold or Sell Shares After Years of Losses

Santander: Dividends Do Not Cover the €14 Purchase Price

A father who was sold these shares years ago carries losses his own son admits are too embarrassing to state aloud. This is the origin of the doubt opening this discussion: whether to hold or sell Santander shares. The striking point is that the chart does not resolve the question. Arithmetic does: how much it cost to enter and how much has been collected along the way.

How Much Have Santander Dividends Really Paid?

A calculation proposed in the thread starts from the worst possible entry: 100 shares bought at the 2007 peak for €14 per share, meaning a €1,400 outlay. Between 2007 and 2015, the stock distributed an average of about €0.6 per share annually; between 2015 and 2019, the average drops to €0.2. Translated: €60 annually for eight fiscal years and €20 annually for four.

With those numbers on the table, some argue that shareholders from that era have lost around €1,000 counting dividends, and slightly less than €800 if they sell at current prices. For some participants, the dividend is not income but a way to mask the price. Those defending holding rely precisely on the fact that something has been collected. Those advocating selling respond that what matters is today's market value, not the purchase price.

Capital Increases, Popular Bank, and Scrip Dividends

The second line of attack is financing. A figure circulating summarizes the anger: 48 capital increases in ten years, according to counts used in the conversation. The most cited is the one used to absorb Banco Popular for €1, with a request for €4 billion from shareholders, according to the same version. And then came the flexible dividend.

The underlying argument is always the same: an entity that needs to ask shareholders for money frequently is not creating value, but recycling it. In response, others argue that banking business depends on interest rate differentials and that in a low-rate environment, profitability is sustained by volume, not margin. No one disputes the discontent; what is debated is whether there is a better alternative for that money.

What Do Technical Levels Say About Santander?

Technical analysis offers no respite either. The dominant reading is that, before the pandemic, the stock should have risen to the €5.5-6 range, just as it was consolidating the break above €4. That scenario was truncated. Today, talk is of a floor, but a weak one compared to other companies in the index.

Prices mentioned in the conversation order the confusion: a relative handed documents at €3.70 by their branch manager, a recommendation to sell if the stock touches €3.5, recent entries at €2.56 and very close to €2.11, exiting at €2.09 with wounds licked clean. To recover losses for those who bought high, the stock would need to reach around €4.2, excluding dividends. A cited and discussed reasoning, not a guaranteed forecast.

The Battle Over the Bank's Presidency

The conversation turns toxic when politics enters. Some messages extend the discrediting of the stock to the entire Spanish stock market, arguing the country should be treated as a risk market for investment purposes; others respond that the problem is not Spain, but the entire financial sector. Banking, it is argued, is a business that has barely created value for shareholders in decades.

In parallel, the discussion drifts toward the figure of the bank's president, Ana Botín, with sens personal insults not reproduced by this newspaper, and ironic defenses of her professional merit that end up acknowledging the weight of her surname. It is noise, quite a lot, but noise with a real background: the doubt of whether management changes anything for those carrying losses since 2007.

What to Do With Santander Shares?

There is no single answer, and anyone promising one lies. The most aggressive trend argues for selling and rotating into any alternative with a better P/E ratio, serious economics, and sustainable dividends. The opposing trend argues that with the price already heavily punished, periodic collection and a potential return to dividends compensate for waiting. A third path, taken by small investors who entered and exited within weeks, simply seeks the rebound and closes the position.

The story ends with a disorienting data point: someone bought at €2.11 and sold at €2.09 within days, accepting the loss rather than uncertainty. The one who has been there since 2007 still waits for €4.2. Same bank, same quote, two opposite ways of understanding money.