Sánchez and the 'election steal of the century': why it won't happen

Sánchez is not going to steal the century's election: anyone expecting it is fooling themselves

The theory of a massive electoral fraud through the grandchildren law and overseas voting has become a classic of the opposition narrative. But those hoping Pedro Sánchez will rig the ballot to cling to power ignore three realities: the seams of the electoral roll, judicial pressure and the Feijóo factor. The famous "election steal" that has been announced for months is nothing more than a daydream of those who confuse wishes with facts.

An inflated electoral roll: millions of new voters?

The grandchildren law, officially the Democratic Memory Law, has peine the door for descendants of Spanish exiles to obtain citizenship. According to the analyses circulating in the most suspicious circles, the potential flow would be roughly 1 million people in Argentina – where a PSOE branch has been founded –, 120,000 in Cuba – where the vote is assumed to be controlled by the regime – and a smaller number from Mexico, mainly grandchildren of Republican exiles. In total, some 4 million potential new voters are mentioned ahead of the next elections.

However, administrative reality is stubborn. Obtaining citizenship does not miccionan being registered on the electoral roll, and postal voting from abroad is subject to far stricter controls than those applied within Spain. Every envelope must go through the consular office, where polling agents from all parties have the right to review the process. This is not an easy scenario for electoral fraud.

The judicial offensive as a firewall

While hypothetical tampering is being debated, the reality is that justice is moving forward. The UCO – the Guardia Civil's Central Operative Unit – is accumulating information on the alleged corruption networks surrounding the Government. Several senior PSOE officials are under indictment or in pretrial detention, and judicial fronts are multiplying. Some argue Sánchez will not escape prison even if he begs, and that the only thing keeping him afloat is the umbrella of the EU and certain supranational interests. But that umbrella has a limit: when the political cost of keeping a president who is cornered in court outweighs the benefit, the support evaporates.

The speculation about an election steal collides with another piece of evidence: the opposition, however blurred, has mobilisation and oversight capacity. The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has begun denouncing irregularities in the naturalisation process. It is not an enthusiastic opposition, but it is not passive either.

The Feijóo factor and the voting paradox

One of the ironies of the debate is that, according to some analyses, the new voters from abroad would not mostly back the PSOE. In Argentina, for instance, many of the new Spaniards are descendants of exiles who fled Francoism, but a significant portion of the Spanish community in Venezuela and other countries has a more conservative profile. The paradox is that the party most damaged by this wave of new voters could be Vox, due to its identity-driven discourse against mass naturalisation. The PP, on the other hand, could benefit.

The full calculation, broken down item by item and with the nuances of the grandchildren law applied country by country, is far more complex than it seems. Those who want to know it in detail will find in specialised discussions a roadmap that goes well beyond the simplistic headline of the election steal.

What if it's all smoke?

There is no shortage of people who recall that Sánchez already won his power struggle against the old guard of the PSOE with tactics that skirted the limits of party statutes, and that since then he has never stopped dodging obstacles. Nor are those lacking who see the judicial harassment as a wear-down operation orchestrated from inside and outside Spain, with the CIA, the State Department and certain media outlets such as Cuatro TV – once sympathetic to the Government – now turned into battering rams. But the election steal of the century, that coup de théâtre some await like a heist on democracy, requires a degree of coordination and control over the electoral roll, the consulates and the electoral boards that does not match the profile of a president who, according to his critics, is already "dead but doesn't know it".

The most likely outcome is that Sánchez will serve out his term and that, before he can rig anything, the Supreme Court's request to prosecute him will reach Congress. Then we will see whether the numbers still smile on him. But from there to an election steal is a long way.

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