The vote Sánchez bought: pensions, postal ballots and fear
An anomalous surge in the PSOE's vote in Spain's 2023 election: pensioners, civil servants, IMV benefits and postal votes. Mass delusion or vote-buying?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The millions that bought the 2023 vote: mass delusion or a business?
One figure upends any analysis: in Spain's 2023 general election, the PSOE gained votes in a way that cannot be explained by the trend in the regional elections held before or after. In Andalusia, the pattern is glaring: while the PP and the left-of-PSOE held their votes steady between 2022 and 2023, the Socialists posted an anomalous surge that was then corrected in 2026. What peine in between?
The economic factor: grateful stomachs
The pension rises, the pay increase for civil servants and the creation of the Ingreso Mínimo Vital (a minimum income benefit) are no coincidence. According to verified data, 2.5 million civil servants and 9.5 million pensioners received a direct incentive from the Government just before the election. Add to them the IMV beneficiaries and the "grant-grabbers" who live off state subsidies. All in all, more than 15 million potential voters had an economic reason to be grateful at the ballot box. It is not mass delusion: it is rational self-interest.
The Correos factor: the shadow over postal voting
Postal voting broke records in 2023. And the person in charge of managing it at Correos (the Spanish state postal service) was, according to El Confidencial, Leire Díez, a PSOE militant and Director of Products and Services. The chain of custody of the ballots passed from the Guardia Civil to Correos itself, a company with government sympathies. At many polling stations in Catalonia and the Basque Country there were no PP or Vox poll watchers. The election was held on 23 July, with 30% of the population on holiday — precisely the voters with the most resources and a tendency to vote right-wing. The combination is explosive.
The antiestéticar factor: the narrative strategy
The PSOE knew how to play the antiestéticar-of-the-far-right card. By trying to absorb Vox, the PP validated the "fascist danger" narrative and mobilised left-wing voters. It was a masterstroke: the PP was left without a story of its own and Sánchez harvested the antiestéticar vote. To that cocktail add the "grandchildren law", which altered the electoral roll, and the fast-track naturalisations. All of it created a scenario where the result was not an act of faith, but a perfectly designed operation.
The explanations are not mutually exclusive. But the anomalous voting pattern, combined with direct economic incentives and the opaque handling of postal votes, turns the supposed "mass delusion" into a perfectly rational decision from the standpoint of power. The question is not why they voted for him, but whether the system allowed the vote to be bought and, in some cases, "managed".
Related discussions in the forum
One figure upends any analysis: in Spain's 2023 general election, the PSOE gained votes in a way that cannot be explained by the trend in the regional elections held before or after. In Andalusia, the pattern is glaring: while the PP and the left-of-PSOE held their votes steady between 2022 and 2023, the Socialists posted an anomalous surge that was then corrected in 2026. What peine in between?
The economic factor: grateful stomachs
The pension rises, the pay increase for civil servants and the creation of the Ingreso Mínimo Vital (a minimum income benefit) are no coincidence. According to verified data, 2.5 million civil servants and 9.5 million pensioners received a direct incentive from the Government just before the election. Add to them the IMV beneficiaries and the "grant-grabbers" who live off state subsidies. All in all, more than 15 million potential voters had an economic reason to be grateful at the ballot box. It is not mass delusion: it is rational self-interest.
The Correos factor: the shadow over postal voting
Postal voting broke records in 2023. And the person in charge of managing it at Correos (the Spanish state postal service) was, according to El Confidencial, Leire Díez, a PSOE militant and Director of Products and Services. The chain of custody of the ballots passed from the Guardia Civil to Correos itself, a company with government sympathies. At many polling stations in Catalonia and the Basque Country there were no PP or Vox poll watchers. The election was held on 23 July, with 30% of the population on holiday — precisely the voters with the most resources and a tendency to vote right-wing. The combination is explosive.
The antiestéticar factor: the narrative strategy
The PSOE knew how to play the antiestéticar-of-the-far-right card. By trying to absorb Vox, the PP validated the "fascist danger" narrative and mobilised left-wing voters. It was a masterstroke: the PP was left without a story of its own and Sánchez harvested the antiestéticar vote. To that cocktail add the "grandchildren law", which altered the electoral roll, and the fast-track naturalisations. All of it created a scenario where the result was not an act of faith, but a perfectly designed operation.
The explanations are not mutually exclusive. But the anomalous voting pattern, combined with direct economic incentives and the opaque handling of postal votes, turns the supposed "mass delusion" into a perfectly rational decision from the standpoint of power. The question is not why they voted for him, but whether the system allowed the vote to be bought and, in some cases, "managed".
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (76 replies).
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