Russia weakens: Ukraine's dilemma between striking and waiting

Is Russia on the verge of collapse? After months of bombing that barely peine Ukrainian defenses, a school of analysis argues that now is the time to intensify the blows. The argument: the Russian economy is bleeding from the burning refineries, its advances have stalled, and its threats increasingly sound like bluffs. But there are dissenters who warn that the Russian resistance reflects not the weakness of the country but of its leader.

The case for Russian weakness

Ukrainian attacks on refineries, fuel depots and logistics targets inside Russian territory have caused damage that, according to some analysts, is more significant than what Russia inflicts on Ukraine. While Moscow destroys apartment blocks and hits civilians, Kyiv strikes where it hurts: oil. The vulnerability of refineries, fixed and hard-to-move targets, contrasts with Ukrainian farmland that withstands the bombing. The conclusion of this school of thought is that Russia can no longer sustain a large-scale offensive and that the pressure of the coming winter could be decisive.

The counterpoints: resistance and demographics

But not everything is so straightforward. Russia's quiet mobilization points to an offensive to conquer the Donbas in 2027, a horizon that does not suggest imminent collapse. Ukraine, for its part, faces a severe demographic problem: men under 25 are leaving the country and the army increasingly relies on machines and foreign fighters. The cutoff of grain transit in Odessa, though partly offset by trucks, adds pressure to an economy that lives off agriculture. Resistance is not measured only in territory gained.

The American political factor

Ukraine depends on foreign aid, and the US political outlook is an unknown. Some argue that the current administration is harming Kyiv rather than helping it, and that a change in the White House could be the real turning point of the conflict. Meanwhile, Russian attacks are interpreted as a sign of desperation. The open question is whether the window of opportunity to strike harder will last until that political change arrives.

Interceptors are lacking to stop the Russian attacks, though Kyiv has plans to develop its own. With the Russian economy wobbling and the war consuming human resources, the balance seems to be tipping, but history is not decided by data alone: it is also decided by time.