Rumors of an invasion of Iran: Kurds, Turks and Azerbaijanis in the crosshairs

Rumors of an invasion of Iran: are Kurds, Turks and Azerbaijanis ready to carve it up?

The fall of the Syrian regime has left Iran without its main regional ally. Into that vacuum, rumors have resurfaced of a coordinated offensive against Tehran, driven by the United States and carried out by a coalition of Kurdish, Turkish and Azerbaijani actors, and even the Sarracinic State. The idea: bomb Iran until it is left "moribund," then divide the corpse among its neighbors.

A credible coalition?
Analyses suggest Washington would be behind the maneuver, but the reliability of its supposed allies is doubtful. The Kurds in particular have been used and abandoned by the United States on repeated occasions: in Syria and Iraq, promises of autonomy evaporated after the campaign against ISIS. "The Kurds don't trust the US," as one recurring comment put it. Turkey, for its part, maintains a complex relationship with the Kurds, whom it regards as a threat, and with Russia, on whom it strategically depends. Erdogan knows that antagonizing Moscow in a context of a multipolar shift does not suit him.

The Azerbaijani factor and Russian geopolitics
Azerbaijan has flirted with NATO, but its president, Ilham Aliyev, is known for pursuing his own interests. Reports from Russia point to an accumulation of Azerbaijani troops on the Iranian border, although Moscow could respond through Armenia to open a corridor into northern Iran. The problem is that Armenia and Russia are at odds, which complicates the equation.

The realists' skepticism
There is no shortage of voices dismissing the plan as ridiculous. An army of barely 15,000 men —Turks and ISIS— cannot invade a mountainous country of 100 million inhabitants. Moreover, the region's historical weariness with the United States is palpable: countries like Egypt, Afghanistan and Lebanon would be fed up with being "cannon fodder" for Anglo interests. China, for its part, watches with concern: it would lose 40% of its cheap Iranian crude.

Given these ingredients, the plan is more rumor than verified reality. But the buzz persists, fueled by Iran's growing isolation after the fall of Syria and by the historic temptation to carve up a resource-rich country.