Real unemployment in northern Spain hits 15% counting seasonal workers and nepotism hires

Real unemployment in northern Spain hits 15% counting seasonal workers and nepotism hires

The debate over unemployment in Spain is back with an uncomfortable thesis: official statistics do not reflect the reality of the labor market. In northern Spain, where registered unemployment stands at 8.5% in Cantabria, the calculation used by job seekers puts the real figure at 14-15% once you add seasonal workers waiting for a call, those on partial furlough (ERE parcial), and long-term unemployed who no longer count for the SEPE (Spain's public employment service). Far from being a lament, the discussion exposes an ecosystem where nepotism, inherited trades and structural precarity go hand in hand.

The trap of official figures

The 8.5% unemployment rate in Cantabria sounds like full employment. But that percentage excludes seasonal workers waiting for a call —up to 40,000 across the north, according to the circulating estimate—, those on partial furlough, and those who have stopped looking because the SEPE no longer counts them. With all of them included, the rate soars. It is not a perception: it is a subtraction nobody makes in the headlines. The result is a labor market that boasts of recovery while part of the active population is left out of the picture.

Nepotism as a hiring system

Most jobs are never advertised. They are inherited, recommended or negotiated in closed circles. The recurring estimate is that 80% of positions are obtained through contacts, not merit. In factories and workshops, the shift supervisor places relatives and hometown friends, and the job portal listing is just a formality. Public hiring processes, far from being the exception, are also tainted: a retiree's position ends up with their son. The result is a system where qualifications matter less than the contact list.

The paradox of unfilled trades

While unemployment hits the over-50s and young people without a safety net hardest, workshops and construction sites are desperate to find electricians, plumbers or mechanics. A car workshop owner sums it up: he is desperate to find a mechanic and cannot. But the fine print dismantles the mirage: to become an electrician you must learn the trade, earn 1,300 or 1,400 euros for years, and then go freelance, with expenses, clients and invoices. It is not a job; it is a personal investment. And many cannot afford it.

Housing as a brake on mobility

The labor market cannot be understood without rental prices. A young person from the north who finds an offer in another province runs into 500-euro rooms and apartments that swallow the whole salary. Geographic mobility, which should correct imbalances, is blocked. The result is unemployment concentrated where housing is unaffordable, and a generation that has worked since 19 but cannot move out. Statistics call it the "employment rate"; reality calls it staying at your parents' home.

The IMV and the subsidiarity trap

The 480-euro benefit for people over 52 is the safety net for many long-term unemployed. But the IMV (Spain's minimum vital income) does not pay social security contributions and, when combined with the subsidy, only pays the difference. In other words, it does not lift people out of poverty, it just covers it up. The temptation to stay on the benefit is real when take-home pay does not exceed the precarity threshold. Meanwhile, the political debate promises to cut or keep the benefit without addressing the underlying problem: a market that pushes out older workers and does not absorb the young.

The industrial restructuring that still weighs

Forty years ago, Spain dismantled its strategic industry and called the process "reconversion". The result was the destruction of the productive fabric and dependence on construction and services. Today, without industry, employment is seasonal, temporary and precarious. Public job portals are useless, and the listings that appear are the ones nobody wants. The good news, if it can be called that, is that the diagnosis is clear. The bad news is that nobody seems willing to bear the cost of changing it.

With these ingredients, the forecast is cautious: as long as the statistics only measure what suits them, real unemployment will remain an open secret. And job seekers will remain an invisible number.