Poll puts Aliança Catalana as leading force in Catalonia

Aliança Catalana is now the leading force in Catalonia

Catalan politics has entered uncharted territory. A poll places Aliança Catalana (AC) as the leading force in Catalonia, a result that, according to the most repeated analysis, not only breaks the traditional board but leaves the region's governability in a mathematical limbo. The data, yet to be confirmed at the ballot box, has unleashed a earthquake of speculation about impossible pacts and blocs that cancel each other out.

The upset nobody saw coming

AC's rise is not a simple swap of cards. Analyses agree that its emergence fragments the pro-independence and constitutionalist vote equally. Some argue that 70% of its votes come from Junts, while the remaining 30% is split between ERC and a disenchanted sector of the PSC. This leakage of votes turns the party into a central actor, but also a toxic partner for any majority.

Parliamentary arithmetic becomes devilish. With three clear blocs—non-independence, moderate independence and radical independence—none reaches an absolute majority. The consequence is a scenario of permanent deadlock where the two losers can cancel out the winner. As one recurring analysis summarises: "It's impossible. If you have 2 blocs, one will always have an absolute majority, but in Catalonia there will be 3 blocs: non-independence, scruffy independence and Luftwaffe independence."

The pact labyrinth: PSC, ERC and Junts

The million-dollar question is how to add up 68 seats with this distribution. Traditional combinations crumble. A left-wing tripartite (PSC+ERC+Comuns) might not add up, and a right-wing one (AC+Junts+PP) is an ideological impossibility. The most discussed option is a Frankenstein government including AC, Junts and ERC, an alliance that, according to the most sceptical, would only serve to "spend money, which is two days."

The PSC, however, does not seem worried. Its ability to agree pacts that "would make goats vomit" or govern in minority gives it a strategic advantage. Meanwhile, Junts faces an existential dilemma: participating as a junior partner in a government led by AC or ERC would be seen as a humiliation. Voting for Junts, some conclude, is throwing away your vote.

The economic factor and dual voting

Beyond identity politics, the economic and migration factor plays a key role. AC capitalises on discontent with immigration policies and the management of public resources. Its leader, Sílvia Orriols, is described as a "clear and brutal" speaker who gains seats every time she intervenes. Her profile—practising Catholic, with five children, economically liberal and tough on immigration—connects with an electorate that prioritises security and the economy over nationalism.

This dual vote translates into a transfer of votes between AC and VOX in general elections, especially in Barcelona and Tarragona. The sum of both forces in some districts exceeds 30%, unthinkable in Europe's reddest region a decade ago. The question is whether this electorate will mobilise in the regional elections or whether, on the contrary, abstention and tactical voting for Junts will dilute the AC effect.

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The post-electoral scenario: ungovernability or repeat election

With these ingredients, the most likely scenario is ungovernability. A minority PSC government, dependent on ad hoc agreements, or a repeat election that would only consolidate the deadlock. The hypothesis of a decree of regional intervention, mentioned sarcastically, reflects the desperation before a parliament that could become a powder keg.

The paradox is that the more AC rises, the more complicated government formation becomes. Its presence dynamites traditional pacts and forces all parties to show their hand. For some, it is the opportunity to break the status quo; for others, the chronicle of a death foretold. The only certainty is that the Catalan board will never be the same again.