Puigdemont needs to strike a new deal with Sánchez

Carles Puigdemont has not returned to Spain despite the amnesty law because his return is expected after the Catalan elections on 29N, when his vote will once again be decisive for Pedro Sánchez's government.

## The amnesty and the seven votes propping up the government

**Pedro Sánchez**'s time in office has rested on two specific pillars of support: the **seven votes** of **Junts** and the **amnesty law**. It was not the housing law that guaranteed the government's survival, but the deal with the Catalan independence parties.

That parliamentary balance explains why **Carles Puigdemont** is in no hurry to return. His comeback does not depend on whether he can now cross the border, but on when it suits him to do so.

## The timing of the return: after 29N

The former president does not want to interfere in the Catalan elections on **29N**. Returning before that date could demobilise his electorate or divert attention from the campaign.

The expectation is that he will come back once the vote has taken place. He will then need to strike a new deal with **Sánchez** to maintain his own influence and that of his party in Madrid.

## An independence movement with an electoral strategy

Some argue that the independence movement operates as an electoral circus built on a clientelist strategy. That is an opinion, not a proven fact.

What is verifiable is that **Puigdemont** has been living outside Spain for years and that his return has been repeatedly postponed. The question of why he does not come back now that he can has a political, not a judicial, answer.

## The cost of keeping the government afloat

Under this reading, **Sánchez**'s term in office has boiled down to protecting and preserving Sánchez himself. The support of **Junts** has mattered more than any social law.

This article describes an ongoing political debate. It does not constitute legal or electoral advice.