PSOE is far from broken: the cards Sánchez still holds

PSOE is far from broken: the cards Sánchez still holds

PSOE is not broken. That is the conclusion that emerges when you look at the resources Pedro Sánchez has at his disposal for the general election scheduled for 29 November, according to the timeline used by those who trinc the matter. The institutional machinery, the electoral roll and a mass of captive voters form a floor that no serious poll dares to place below 30%.

Some argue that if Sánchez is running, it is because he has everything tied up. Others, more sceptical, point out that the polls put the PP ahead and that a coalition with Vox would be enough. The question is not who wins, but by how much. And that is where the cards nobody discusses out loud come into play.

The 2.7 million captive voters

The most repeated calculation in political circles starts from a simple base: 2 million members of UGT and CCOO (Spain's two main trade unions), 2.7 million recipients of the Ingreso Mínimo Vital (a minimum income benefit) and 3 million civil servants. These are voters who, in theory, have reasons to back the government that pays or protects them. It is not an automatic sum, but it is a cushion no party dismisses.

To that add the vote of 400,000 Argentines with the right to vote, a group that can sway seats in provinces where the margin is minimal. And the backing of the Basque and Catalan nationalist parties, willing to prop up the PSOE in exchange for keeping their fiscal and regional privileges. The arithmetic is not clean, but it is arithmetic.

The electoral roll, the Ley de Nietos and the Supreme Court

The electoral roll closes on 1 August. On 8 or 10 September, the Supreme Court provisionally suspended certain votes linked to the Ley de Nietos (a law granting Spanish citizenship to grandchildren of exiles). In October, Sánchez called the early election. On 29 November, the ballot. The Supreme Court is still trying to decide how many of those citizens already on the roll will actually be able to vote. The Junta Electoral Central (central electoral board) is working with the INE (the national statistics institute) and the consulates to identify those affected.

The State Legal Service itself acknowledges that 168,896 people come from a procedure that presumed exile, although it defends the legality of the process. The real problem is not that there are 400,000 new Spaniards, but that a few thousand votes can change a seat in tight provinces. That is the game.

The fraud that never comes

The hypothesis of massive fraud circulates insistently. There is talk of diluting the Vox vote through parties such as Iustitia Europa or Alvise to prevent it from reaching the 20% that would give the right an absolute majority. In that scenario, the PSOE could finish ahead of the PP in seats, though not enough to govern alone.

There is no evidence of any of this. These are speculations traded in talk shows and on social media. What is verifiable is that the PSOE has lost steam since Sánchez took it over, according to part of the analysis. And that Aznar, in his day, seemed unbeatable until the man of dialogue came along.

What the polls say and what the data say

The polls put the PP ahead. Almost all of them. A coalition with Vox would exceed an absolute majority in most scenarios. But the polls also had Rajoy winning in 2004 and Clinton in 2016. They are not prophecies.

PSOE is not dead. It is wounded, but it retains a base of voters who will not abandon it. The question is not whether Sánchez can win. It is whether he can prevent the PP and Vox coalition from displacing him. And for that, every seat counts. Every vote from abroad. Every Argentine with a passport. Every civil servant on the payroll.

The game is open. The cards are on the table. Anyone who thinks this is already decided should have their head examined.