Private credit alarm bells as SpaceX IPO valuation raises eyebrows
Partners Group halts redemptions in Switzerland while SpaceX goes public at a valuation 1.5 times the size of Spain's Ibex 35. Signs of overheating?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The private credit crisis reaches Switzerland and SpaceX goes public at a wildly high valuation
While wealthy Swiss investors cannot pull their money out of private credit funds, the market is gearing up for one of the most anticipated and debated IPOs: SpaceX. The timing is no coincidence. Fund manager Partners Group has halted redemptions, and its shares have plunged more than 18%. The message is clear: private capital, illiquid by definition, is starting to show cracks when investors want out.
What is going on with private credit in Switzerland?
Partners Group, one of the largest private capital managers, has blocked withdrawals from its funds under redemption pressure. According to analyst Pierre-Yves Gauthier of AlphaValue, "the disease is spreading across private market asset classes." The freeze is not illegal -it is written into the contracts- but it reveals that the private credit market, which grew with hardly any regulation, may be closer to a liquidity crisis than many believe.
SpaceX: a bubble built on futuristic promises?
In the middle of the storm, SpaceX goes public on Friday the 12th at a valuation 1.5 times the entire Ibex 35, Spain's benchmark stock index. Starlink is a real business, but the price bakes in expectations for projects like lunar mining or intercontinental rocket travel, which are far from profitable in the short term. The question is whether the market is pricing in fantasies in an environment where liquidity is evaporating.
If the overvaluation is confirmed, the hit could be twofold: private capital illiquidity and the bursting of speculative valuations. Friday the 12th may mark a turning point.
Related discussions in the forum
While wealthy Swiss investors cannot pull their money out of private credit funds, the market is gearing up for one of the most anticipated and debated IPOs: SpaceX. The timing is no coincidence. Fund manager Partners Group has halted redemptions, and its shares have plunged more than 18%. The message is clear: private capital, illiquid by definition, is starting to show cracks when investors want out.
What is going on with private credit in Switzerland?
Partners Group, one of the largest private capital managers, has blocked withdrawals from its funds under redemption pressure. According to analyst Pierre-Yves Gauthier of AlphaValue, "the disease is spreading across private market asset classes." The freeze is not illegal -it is written into the contracts- but it reveals that the private credit market, which grew with hardly any regulation, may be closer to a liquidity crisis than many believe.
SpaceX: a bubble built on futuristic promises?
In the middle of the storm, SpaceX goes public on Friday the 12th at a valuation 1.5 times the entire Ibex 35, Spain's benchmark stock index. Starlink is a real business, but the price bakes in expectations for projects like lunar mining or intercontinental rocket travel, which are far from profitable in the short term. The question is whether the market is pricing in fantasies in an environment where liquidity is evaporating.
If the overvaluation is confirmed, the hit could be twofold: private capital illiquidity and the bursting of speculative valuations. Friday the 12th may mark a turning point.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (11 replies).
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