Prediction of an attack before the election: the theory making the rounds

Prediction of an attack before the election: the theory making the rounds

Could a far-right attack in Spain be manufactured in 50 days? That's the question hovering around digital gossip circles these days, and the answer being given in some quarters is not reassuring. The theory going around holds that, with the election still far off, the memory of Maricarmen will fade and someone will need to "give it another little push." The scenarios being floated range from a "bombing" to failed shots at el Perro, via a beating of a lgtb man or an immigrant. It's on record, they say, for a reboot.

From Stalin to Kirov: the manual being cited

The conversation quickly drifts toward Soviet history. The assassination of Kirov is mentioned as the precedent that allowed Stalin to eliminate any internal opposition, and a parallel is drawn with the playbook the PSOE (Spain's Socialist Party) is said to have trinc in the past. The comparison is not innocent: the argument is that a false-flag attack requires a prior narrative, it doesn't come out of nowhere. "It's hard to sell a far-right attack that appears out of thin air," one participant sums up, adding that without a story connecting it to most of the electorate, the episode remains an isolated incident. For that, the reply goes, there are groups like Núcleo Nacional.

Why do some doubt the far right would carry out an attack?

Some of those taking part flatly reject the hypothesis. They argue the far right lacks the capacity or the "guts" to show up forcefully, let alone organize an attack. That method is attributed to other actors: the Atocha bombing, the lapel bomb and the shot in the back of the neck are cited as part of a long list credited to the PSOE and its allies. The discussion, then, is not about whether there will be violence, but about who would carry it out.

The migrant niche and the false-flag deaths theory

Some go further and claim Spanish victims are no longer needed to cause shockwaves. The argument is that there is a much better niche: incidents with migrant victims that would not only bring direct votes but would cost rivals tens or hundreds of thousands of them. Concrete examples are mentioned: the atrocious murder of a migrant girl, the arson attack on a squatted building with dozens of victims. "But there are going to be false-flag deaths, don't doubt it," goes the verdict, with Madrid or Ceuta named as preferable settings. Given its gravity, the claim should be read for what it is: speculation with no evidence whatsoever.

The Falcon, the envelope with bullets and the state of emergency

Another line of speculation points at the executive. It is suggested to monitor the Falcon's flights to the Caribbean in case there are last-minute political matters pending. An envelope with bullets sent to el Perro is imagined, who would come out crying and use the threat-to-democracy excuse to proclaim himself president for another four years. The hypothesis of a pogre, humanitarian state of emergency against the far right also comes up, though with no data to back it.

The context nobody disputes: private security

Amid so much conjecture, one concrete note: it is claimed that el Perro is beefing up his private security because he no longer trusts the cops. If someone takes him out, the speculation goes, it will be from his police or bodyguard circle. It is the only operational detail being handled, and it does not come from official sources.

The prediction that doesn't hold up

Most of those taking part agree that, with the current cards, the PSOE wins the election without needing any of this. Others believe there is no reasoning in Spain, only bile and emotions, and that any strategy will fly. The prediction of an attack, for now, is just that: a prediction. And like all of them, free of charge.