Polls show PSOE losing 1.3 million votes ahead of Nov 29 election

Nov 29 election complicates Sánchez's position: PSOE loses 1.3 million votes

What happens when a president calls for elections only to face a harsh reality check from the polls? The machinery at Moncloa goes into overdrive. As of this discussion, the average of the last two weeks paints an uncomfortable picture for the Government: PP 33.7%, PSOE 25.7% and Vox 18.0%. According to cited reports, the PSOE would have lost 1.3 million votes, dragged down by housing crises, issues in Ceuta, and high-estimulante ilegal rail problems, while its left-wing coalition bleeds out in leadership disputes.

This is not an isolated snapshot. Frente Amplio, the brand with which United Left aims to replace Sumar as an electoral draw, loses 1.7 million votes and barely secures seven seats, according to collected chronicles. Mónica García cools on her candidacy to lead the new entity: "For now, that is not on the table." And while the left unravels, the Constitutional Court is expected to side with the Senate in the jurisdictional conflict against the Executive for failing to present accounts throughout the legislature, which de facto pushes the Government to present Budgets or anticipate the ballot box.

The early election nobody confirms but everyone prepares for

The Government suddenly tenders for election stationery despite no elections being in sight. That is the detail that has set off all alarms. At the same time, Buxadé accuses the Executive of seeking confrontation in Ceuta for political mobilization purposes and doubts that Pedro Sánchez will call elections. The paradox is rich: some believe the early election is imminent; others think it is an excuse to stay put.

Some argue that calling early elections is a flight forward, the car without gas described in an opinion column. Against this weighs the argument that, with budgets extendable indefinitely, the Executive has no formal need to dissolve the Cortes. From that trench, it is asserted that there will be no general elections and no motion of censure, because parties that are neither PP nor Vox prefer a weak Sánchez they can continue to exploit.

Why speculation about suspending the 2027 elections?

A thesis circulates on social media that should be handled with care: that Moncloa designs the suspension of the 2027 elections relying on Article 116.5 of the Constitution, under which Congress cannot be dissolved while a state of alarm exists. The electoral decree would have to be issued on June 28, 2027, and the alarm would be declared by the Government itself. There is no proof of such a plan; it is a hypothesis launched without documentary backing. But the mere fact that it circulates says much about the climate of distrust.

To this adds the drip-feed of decree-laws: Sánchez breaks the barrier of 30 with the Cortes dissolved, according to published information, challenging the limits of the "extraordinary and urgent necessity" required by the Constitution. And a law signed by Sánchez himself would force the next Government to cut pensions or raise taxes if spending rules are breached. Poisoned inheritance, some call it; armor, others.

The Senate and the three-fifths deciding the future of the TC

Only seven seats separate the right-wing majority from the three-fifths of the Senate, crucial for the Constitutional Court (TC). That is the data explaining why the campaign is also being fought in the Upper House. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court abandons Sánchez and guarantees the right of 38 million Spaniards to vote with a legal census, rejecting correcting the Supreme Court as requested by the Ombudsman.

In the Canary Islands, a GESOP poll on direct voting intention places Vox at 21.1%, PSOE at 20.7%, and PP at 14.5%. And from France, Marine Le Pen transfers her support to Vox ahead of November 29: "We wish Santiago Abascal all the success he deserves." Abascal, for his part, insists that Sánchez's continuation is "incivil" for Spain's interests and describes the November 29 appointment as "existential": "It is now or perhaps never."

Puente, the firewall that burns

Sánchez lets Puente fall to try to save the PSOE campaign and avoid a historic defeat, according to chronicles. The new slogan will be one written by the president on X: "Not all of us are equal." Abascal, after the resignation, does not forgive: "Sánchez always hides behind his henchmen, but the responsibility is his." The campaign, which had started optimistically with a defense of joy, completely changes climate after the accident.

Abascal himself blames Sánchez for the violence suffered at his rallies in A Coruña and Avilés: "This peine because the Government Delegation wants it to happen." These are accusations with no known judicial resolution as of this discussion. What is a fact is that twelve agents were injured in protests, according to the police report collected.

The empty box and the committed budget

There is a complaint that transcends party lines: politicians empty the treasury and commit the budget before elections as a political weapon. If the outgoing government loses, the incoming one can do nothing because the box is empty and the budget is committed for years. If they win again, they monetize the spending as management and continue to get into debt. With these materials, the question is not who wins on November 29, but how much real margin remains for the winner. Shit democracy, someone might say. Or simply, the art of governing without governing.