Polls give PP and Vox a majority but PSOE holds near 100 seats

2026 polls: the right nears 200 seats and the PSOE holds firm

Will the PP and Vox coalition win, or will the PSOE hold on? That is the question hovering over every poll since the year began. Surveys published in recent weeks point to an absolute majority for the right, with the PP as the most-voted party and Vox approaching 20% of the vote. Yet the socialist bloc is not collapsing: no poll places it below 100 seats or 25% of the ballots. That apparent contradiction —the right up, the left not falling— is the core of a debate mixing data, suspicion and plenty of gut feeling.

PP and Vox add up to an absolute majority in every poll

The most repeated figure comes from the six polls published in recent weeks. In all of them, the PP would be the most-voted party and its sum with Vox would exceed an absolute majority. Vox moves between 63 and 77 seats, leaving it close to 20% of the vote. The PP, for its part, would capitalise on the PSOE's erosion among more centrist voters, that classic social democracy that was once felipismo. The conclusion drawn from these numbers is that the right has the door wide open.

But there is a nuance worth keeping in view: the same poll that gives the right an absolute majority also notes that the PSOE does not drop below 100 seats. In other words, the right's victory comes not from the opponent's collapse but from vote fragmentation and the wear on its minor coalition partners. The left bloc stays the same, but the right grows at the expense of seats lost by the far left and regional parties.

The PSOE holds thanks to the captive vote of pensioners and public employees

The most repeated explanation in the analyses is the captive vote. The PSOE keeps a very strong base among pensioners —especially those who believe the message of protected pensions— and among public employees and welfare recipients. It is what jargon calls the state-dependent vote. To that add the tactical vote of the more radical left, which, in the absence of a charismatic leader like the one Pablo Iglesias once was, prefers not to scatter and vote PSOE to stop the right.

That hard core explains why the PSOE does not sink even though polls show it considerably worn. The question is whether that captive vote will be enough to recover or whether, on the contrary, the PP and Vox sum will ultimately prevail. Some argue that Sánchez's aggressive campaign costs the far left votes but does not take a single seat from the centre-right. And others recall that in 2023 every poll gave the right the win, and then the PSOE came close to governing.

The 2023 precedent and the ghost of failed polls

Distrust of polls is another of the debate's main threads. In 2023, most polls gave the right a clear victory, yet the PSOE held and managed to stay in government thanks to deals with the independence parties. That episode left an open wound in the credibility of polls and fuelled the theory that Tezanos's CIS (Spain's official polling body) is the only one that gets it right because it cooks the data to the taste of the tenant of La Moncloa (the prime minister's residence).

That distrust now mixes with the suspicion that the government may be preparing the ground for a victory the polls do not reflect. Not in vain, the prime minister has stated on several occasions that he will win with a majority «much broader» than in 2019 and 2023, statements some read as an attempt to mobilise his electorate out of antiestéticar of a debacle. The state machinery, control of public media and the ability to call elections at the most favourable moment are factors hovering over any forecast.

The Vox factor: necessary partner or drag on the PP?

Vox's role is another of the hot spots. Polls give it between 63 and 77 seats, a figure that consolidates it as the third political force and as an indispensable partner for any right-wing government. But not all analysts see that alliance as clear. Some argue Vox takes seats from the PP because they share the same electorate, and that that transfer of votes may end up reducing the effectiveness of their combined total. Others, however, consider Vox the protest vote par excellence, the one that gathers the discontent of those who feel incivil by the dominant discourse.

The truth is the relationship between PP and Vox is not simple. Feijóo lacks punch, according to critics, and Ayuso's shadow looms over his leadership. Some see in the Madrid premier an alternative who could unseat the national leader. In that context, the right's unity is not guaranteed, and that could complicate forming a government even with an absolute majority in the polls.

Abstention and the hidden vote, the great unknowns

Beyond the numbers, there is a factor no poll can measure precisely: abstention. In a climate of growing political disaffection, many voters may choose to stay home. And there the PSOE has the advantage, because its electorate is more loyal and more mobilised by antiestéticar of the right. The right, on the other hand, needs its electorate to get excited and turn out. If the campaign centres on antiestéticar of Vox, left-wing mobilisation may be greater.

The hidden vote is another of the mysteries. Some argue many Vox voters do not confess their voting intention to pollsters, which could inflate the right's results. Others believe the hidden vote favours the PSOE, because its voters are more reluctant to admit it in public. In any case, the 2023 experience shows that polls are not infallible and the final result can hold surprises.

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In the end, the question is less who will win than who will be able to govern. On paper, the right has an absolute majority in every poll. But Spain's recent history shows that polls are not always right and that the PSOE has an electoral floor that is hard to pierce. What is clear is that the campaign will be long and that post-election deals will be decisive. As an old analyst used to say, in Spain the winner is not the one who gets the most votes, but the one who negotiates best afterwards. And Sánchez knows a thing or two about that.