Pharmamar: the 40% crash that revives the Zeltia ghost

Pharmamar: from 115 to 97 euros and the Zeltia ghost

A pharmaceutical company with 200 million in treasury, almost no debt, and 100 million in profit should not crash 40% on the stock market. Pharmamar did. The company that once promised to cure cancer ended up living the full cycle: scientific endorsement, vertical rise, euphoria, and a nosedive. And it carries an uncomfortable surname, Zeltia, which reappears every time the stock turns.

The first-quarter numbers that broke the narrative

There was a quarter that left half of Spain speechless. Sales of 99 million compared to 19 million in the same period last year. Ebitda went from losing 7 million to gaining 72 million. And cash, from 22 million, jumped to 174 million. With those figures, the bluff thesis held up less and less. In 2019, the company capitalized 2.4 billion with 11 million in losses; a year later, the real business was finally starting to resemble what was being traded.

What remains of the Zeltia ghost?

Pharmamar was a division of Zeltia, the holding company that for two decades promised miracle treatments while the stock market remained skeptical. That legacy weighs heavily. Today, the calling card is lurbinectedina (lurbi, for those in the know), Aplidin, and Sylentis' tivanisirán, plus the sale of cobi19 tests thrown in. Those who remember Zeltia don't buy the story; they buy the antiestéticar of repeating it.

The February double top and the shorts vs. longs war

On February 9, 2021, the chart showed a double top that, for technical analysts, was an undeniable sell signal. The stock hadn't done the usual cleanup at highs, and the doji failure indicated that the big players were selling. Those who read the candles exited above 90. Those waiting for the final approval of lurbi stayed in and saw it fall to 97 euros, 40% below its highs.

The mirror of Meliá, eDreams, and Iberia

One of the most repeated arguments: if Meliá went from 2 to 8 euros and eDreams from 1.5 to 10 in 2020, with colossal debt, why couldn't Pharmamar, having cleaned up its act, have risen to 300? The market doesn't hand out medals for fundamentals. It distributes liquidity, and liquidity, when it turns, doesn't distinguish between a company with cash and one on the brink of bankruptcy. Hence, many admit one uncomfortable truth: in the stock market, price and value rarely go hand in hand.

What's seen at the Colmenar Viejo factory

There's a detail that baffles the conspiracy theorists: those who have visited the factory in Colmenar Viejo, Madrid, come away talking about a serious company with real facilities. The problem was never the factory. The problem was always the price. As one investor's experience sums it up: you can have a solid business and still buy its shares at 1,000 or at zero. Product quality doesn't shield its stock price.

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Pharmamar has gone from promising a cure for cancer to selling cobi19 tests and pharmaceutical royalties. With 200 million in cash and real profit on the table, the 'scam' label no longer holds. What remains unanswered is something else: why does a company earning more than before trade as if the market expects the final crash? Is it old distrust, a short-sellers' battle, or simply the price of having been called Zeltia?