Pharmamar slides from 60 to 40 euros and exits Spain's IBEX 35

Pharmamar: the drubbing that took it from 60 euros down to 40

The results weren't catastrophic. The punishment was. Pharmamar begins this coverage with a plunge that leaves the question hanging: is the stock worth buying the dip, or should you close the door and never come back? The first thing that appears is the technical reference, that 50 euro zone that keeps acting like a magnet on the way down, and the warning that the company trades above what its accounts justify.

Some say buying the dip in a falling market never ends well. The most repeated diagnosis is that the stock still has room to fall and that the market can push it even cheaper.

From 60 to 40 euros: the dip that went wrong

The first stretch moves between 60 and 63. A close at almost 63 euros encourages planning a short entry if it rises the next day. At the same time, two opposite scenarios take shape: one camp sees potential around 80 euros without speculating and up to 100 once hot money arrives; the other argues the stock is being marked down cheap on purpose and the fall isn't over.

The facts proved the second camp right. The stock fell to 40 euros and completed its exit from the IBEX 35, a move that had been anticipated months in advance. The loss from the peak mentioned comes to around 90 euros per share. Those who bought near the top and endured the journey sum it up bluntly: "I've brought my average down from 52 to 42, at least I got something out of it."

The dominant reading isn't opportunity, it's a trap. Those who argued it was worth a quick punt at 66 euros, after a daily gain of 30% and 100% in a year, discovered that the rally also fell victim to volatility.

Why do people talk about a shell game at Pharmamar?

Because the company is called Pharmamar, but its recent history carries the baggage of Zeltia. That's the core of the distrust: the former parent company, its managers, and a string of announcements that deflated. The Aplidin episode against elbichito keeps coming up as an example, with one uncomfortable detail: here the endorsement wasn't corporate PR, but a study signed by top-tier virologists.

The other front is the accounts. In 2021 the company earned 100 million euros, a figure thrown out as proof that the punishment is excessive. The counteroffer comes with the first-quarter results, described flatly as disastrous, and with the suspicion that the company has let spending get out of hand. The most cited back-of-the-envelope calculation points to a profit of 83 million versus the 55 estimated by analysts.

What the Imforte trial and lurbinectedin change

Here is the plot twist of the whole coverage. The news isn't a statement of expectations: it's the Imforte trial, presented as the most important in the company's history, in small cell lung cancer. It met its primary endpoints with statistically significant overall survival and pogre-free survival data.

In plain terms: approval is expected for the combination of lurbinectedin, from Pharmamar, with atezolizumab, from Roche, as first-line maintenance treatment. With that in hand, global sales are projected, and another front opens with leiomyosarcoma beginning to be marketed. The stock responds with a jump to 66 euros and a volume that, it is stressed, doesn't resemble previous rallies. The agreement to market Zepzelca in Turkey, with a 4% rise that later deflated, completes the commercial map.

The projections circulating at that time are 90 to 100 euros before the end of the year and a change in fundamentals within two or three years, when lurbinectedin is in first and second line. The skeptical response fits in four words: we've heard that before.

How much is Pharmamar worth if cash is 250 million?

It's the most uncomfortable argument for the bearish thesis. If the stock fell to 12 euros, the entire company would be worth less than the 250 million it has in cash, something that borders on accounting absurdity. The question hangs: is the market pricing in a clinical failure, or simply punishing years of exaggerated communication?

The analysis splits in two. For some, cash marks the floor and anything below it is a gift of an opportunity. For others, the cash is burning: the company spends more than it earns while chasing approvals that arrive late.

The IBEX 35 and the deadlines that never hold

The exit from the index was anticipated and came to pass, along with the 40 euro price. What doesn't hold are the timelines. The company's own chairman came out to set dates: recruitment for the phase III of Aplidin, three months. The response mixes mockery and memory: at best, that drug wouldn't arrive until late 2022.

That gap between announcement and reality runs through the whole coverage. They always rallied before results, and dropped after, is the closing summary, with the feeling that the stock is trapped between a narrative that promises and a price that denies.

With the numbers on the table, the same asset sustains two incompatible stories: the 40 euros of those who look at the accounts and the 100 of those who look at the pipeline. Both fit on the same chart, and neither has been settled yet.