Olive oil prices surge in Spain as consumption drops

Olive oil prices soar as Spanish shoppers cut back

The price of extra virgin olive oil has become a barometer for inflation that is no longer theoretical. Prices have reached around €10 per liter in stores and mills, depending on the case. The consumer response has been predictable: buying less, switching to substitutes, and feeling that food costs are becoming unpredictable.

This rise is not isolated. It coincides with higher prices for meat, fish, and fruit, and a widespread practice across the food chain: paying more for less product. Shrinkflation—fewer grams, same packaging, higher price—has entered the conversation as a form of silent inflation that doesn't make headlines but shows up on receipts.

Why olive oil prices skyrocketed

The most common argument relates to the harvest. Spain typically produces about 1.4 million tons of olive oil, but the 2022-2023 campaign yielded only around 600,000 tons, barely over 40% of the average. The trinc season, 2023-2024, improved to about 800,000 tons, still just 60% of normal levels. With such a supply drop, anyone holding stock from the previous campaign could sell it at much higher prices once the cost per liter began to climb.

That is the core issue: production versus demand. When the harvest collapses and demand remains steady, prices fly high. Those with inventory made a fortune. Daily buyers started looking at labels with distrust.

Consumption plummets as substitutes emerge

Consumers have responded by cutting back. Some have reduced usage to a quarter, others switched from extra virgin to standard olive oil, and many changed fats entirely. Using sunflower oil for frying and olive oil for dressing has become a common strategy. Less usual alternatives like coconut oil also appear, as they last longer and are cheaper.

The popularity of air fryers fits this logic. Their success isn't just about convenience or trendiness: they use much less oil and are more efficient for one- or two-person households than ovens designed for families of four. That an appliance becomes popular because it allows cooking without olive oil says a lot about the current moment.

Olive oil isn't the only problem

Some argue that focusing solely on olive oil distorts the bigger picture. For the average consumer, annual spending on olive oil may be around €100 higher than before the price hike. Meat, fish, and fruit weigh much more in the shopping basket and have also become expensive. A sea bass that averaged €18 per kilo now costs over €30. Hake has trinc a similar path.

Comparisons with other products also put things in perspective. A liter of extra virgin olive oil at €10 is still cheaper than a drink in certain places, yet nobody gives that up. Spending priorities don't always trinc price logic.

Speculation, monopoly, and other theories

Part of the analysis points to market structure. Spain produces about 65% of the world's olive oil, leaving consumers with few alternatives within the category. Critics argue this concentration allows prices to move freely with little real competition. The comparison with housing arises naturally: if people speculate on apartments, why not on food?

Others note that olive oil degrades at high temperatures and that fats with higher smoke points are better for frying. The debate over which fat is best for each use mixes with discussions on price and health, often blurring the lines.

Olive oil prices in Spain vs abroad

One of the most uncomfortable data points is international comparison. Some claim the same Spanish oil sells cheaper outside Spain than inside. In Moscow, a liter of a well-known Spanish brand can be found for €10. The feeling that Spanish consumers face different pricing than foreign markets fuels irritation.

Tax context adds to this. Tax revenue has hit records while food prices soar, reinforcing the perception that the problem isn't just supply and demand.

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Given these factors, one might expect olive oil consumption to keep falling and substitutes to gain stable ground. But food habits aren't like any other market: tradition, health concerns, and taste matter. If the harvest recovers and prices drop, many who left will likely return. If prices stay high, olive oil may cease to be a daily staple and become an occasional item. Predictions remain uncertain, as almost everything dependent on climate and policy.