Novo Nordisk Plummets After Falling Short of Eli Lilly

Novo Nordisk drops to €35: CagriSema loses by 2.5 points

Novo Nordisk has hit rock bottom trinc clinical trial results where its experimental obesity drug, CagriSema, underperformed Eli Lilly's treatment. The Danish stock shed 8% in a single session and traded near €35, far from the €60 some forum users considered 'normal' or the €42 at which others had entered.
The trigger, on paper, is minuscule: a difference of 2.5 percentage points in weight reduction.

What the CagriSema trial measured and why it's selling in panic

The numbers are what they are. CagriSema achieved 23% body weight reduction in 84 weeks, compared to the 25.5% reached by Eli Lilly's tirzepatide in the same trial. Just over two points of difference, yet it has been enough for the market to declare a winner and a loser in the obesity drug war.

Some argue that the reaction has been disproportionate and that this difference falls within what could be explained by any bias in an open trial. The most cited argument is that if the result had been the other way around, the stock would have risen by exactly the same amount. This is the problem with investing in pharmaceutical companies expecting stability, when the sector rewards and punishes based on the outcome of a single study.

2026 second-quarter accounts are not helping

The company reported sales growing 3% at constant exchange rates, weighed down by the reversal of a provision of 2.600 million kronor related to the U.S. 340B pricing program. Adjusted, sales rose 7%, driven by GLP-1 volume. However, reported operating profit fell by 16%, compounded by non-cash impairment charges of 6.300 million kronor.

The most notable figure is the gross margin: down from 82.7% to 78.2%. The narrowing of the margin is interpreted on forums as a sign that the company will have to offer additional discounts to defend market share. This was compounded by two pieces of news circulating in the thread: an FDA warning about potential side effects and unreported deaths related to Ozempic, and the loss of the patent for the same drug, with India entering the market to launch a generic.

Is it still a good company at these prices?

The most repeated diagnosis lately is that Novo Nordisk relies too heavily on a couple of patents and faces fierce competition. Against this backdrop, some forum users remind that the core insulin business remains stable, there are no debt issues, it trades at reasonable multiples, and offers a dividend close to 5% of the share price. All this while the stock has accumulated a decline estimated by one user at around 75% from highs.

The real disagreement is not about the company's quality, but about timing. The more cautious view warns that this is not a correction, but a downtrend, and these falls take years to digest: those seeking adrenaline are warned they are in the wrong valuation. Others point to the €30 zone as the next double bottom, with a gap pending closure at €50.

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In between, there are the real positions described by some forum users: buys at €34 between February and April, dividends already collected, quick trades with a 5% gain, and more money invested during the fall. And all of it, ultimately, due to 2.5 percentage points.