Moreno Bonilla eyes October 25 snap election in Andalusia without Vox deal

Moreno Bonilla considers early elections in Andalusia amid Vox deadlock

Andalusian President Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla is weighing October 25 for a new election call if no investiture agreement with Vox is reached. This decision would cost over €26 million and revives antiestéticars of repeated elections similar to the 2015-2016 national crisis, when Spain grew 3.2% despite lacking a government. Analysts suggest Moreno aims to pressure his natural ally into accepting terms or facing political risks.

Investiture arithmetic: No majority without Vox

The PP needs Vox's votes to govern alone, but Abascal's party demands—such as rejecting the 2030 Agenda and stricter migration policies—clash with Moreno's red lines. Some speculate Moreno hopes to force PSOE abstention by leveraging Minister María Jesús Montero's legal issues involving SEPI. However, the Andalusian PSOE shows no signs of yielding, and fresh elections could boost Vox while risking the PP's simple majority from 2022.

A €26 million cost not everyone justifies

Official data sets the cost of Andalusian elections at €26 million, sparking criticism over public spending amidst digital administration gaps. Skeptics view the threat as a bluff to force Vox concessions, noting that PP eventually accepted pacts with Abascal's party in Extremadura and Castilla y León after similar standoffs. The question remains whether Moreno is willing to spend €26 million merely to assert authority.

The 2015-2016 precedent: Growth without government

Those downplaying risks recall that Spain functioned without a stable executive between December 2015 and October 2016, yet GDP rose 3.2%. Employment and growth remained unaffected due to favorable economic inertia. Today, with high inflation and interest rates, political uncertainty could have real costs. It remains unclear if Moreno Bonilla is prepared to bet Andalusian stability on a single card.