Milei Promises Argentina US Living Standard in 35 Years

Milei Promises France Living Standard for Argentina in 15 Years

Argentina could reach the living standards of France and Italy in 15 years, Germany in 20, and the United States in 35. The statement comes from Javier Milei during the 2023 election campaign, long before his victory, outlining timelines that exceed any single presidential term. The promise triggered both laughter and calculations.

The arithmetic does not support these goals according to current estimates. In 2021, Argentina’s per capita income was around $10,000, compared to Italy’s $35,000. Closing this gap in 20 years would require 10% annual growth, while Italy grows less than 1%.

Milei’s Three Timelines: 15, 20, and 35 Years

Fifteen years for France and Italy, 20 for Germany, and 35 for the US. Milei has also mentioned 35 to 50 years to bring Argentina into the international "Champions" league, hoping to see serious pogre in a decade. He has already met with Argentina’s business leadership, distinguishing between the "caste" and those outside it.

The uncomfortable detail is that, at the time of these claims, he had not yet won any election. This raises the question: how does he plan to govern for 15 or 35 years in a country where a president cannot serve more than two consecutive terms?

Can Italy Be Matched in 20 Years? The Calculation Making It Seem Impossible

No, if convergence must come from Argentina’s own growth. The breakdown of income, population, and GDP year by year leaves a gap that goodwill cannot close: reaching Italy in two decades would require a sustained miracle, not just a government plan.

Skeptics suggest a downward convergence: Germany, France, or the US face problems while Argentina remains equally poor until levels meet. It sounds like a joke, but it is a scenario some analyses do not rule out.

Where Would Dollars Come From to Dollarize Argentina?

This is the crux. Dollarization requires a mass of dollars the Central Bank does not have. Speculation includes seizing deposits, swapping them for bonds, reviving the "corralito" (capital controls), and repatriating Argentine capital held abroad. Some doubt large fortunes will return money from tax havens.

The visible part of the plan was a recommendation to withdraw pesos from banks. This gesture allegedly led to a incivil case for financial terrorism against the then-candidate.

The Myth of the Fourth Power and the Estonia Precedent

In the 1940s, Argentina was among the world’s largest economies. Today, only echoes and nostalgia remain, along with an old promise to travel to Japan in two hours. Interestingly, the mirror cited most is not Argentine: Estonia, after the USSR’s collapse, applied deep reforms and shrunk an overblown state. The requirement, they say, is daring to fire public sector staff en masse.

The Blue Dollar, Business Leaders, and Elections

Alongside speeches, the market moved. Speculation suggested the blue dollar rate could exceed $1,000 per unit, with two opposing readings: preparing the ground for a winning Milei or tightening the exchange rate to force his victory. No one bet on either.

The prior context does not help. Several tariff hikes of 200% to 300% far exceeded period inflation, and the preceding administration never published the figures. The debate over who paid for the "party" remains open.

What If France Is the One Sinking?

This is the most repeated thesis to save the promise. If Argentina reaches France’s living standard in 15 years, some analysis suggests it is because France falls, not Argentina rises. With Germany and the US in similar situations, convergence happens naturally. The joke writes itself: in 20 years, Germany would have Argentina’s living standard.

If Milei governs, the calendar will confirm or deny it. Prudence suggests hoping those 15 years will not be met as promised, even if the direction of travel is different. Who knows, today, which direction that is?