Maersk exits Russia: impact on Aliexpress logistics

Maersk abandons Russia and maritime trade reorders

Is Aliexpress stopping deliveries to Russia? Maersk's withdrawal from the Russian market, amid sanctions trinc the invasion of Ukraine, has sparked debate on whether the Chinese e-commerce giant is cutting off supplies to Russian shoppers. The short answer is no. The long answer is that the logistical map is being redrawn rapidly, and Moscow isn't necessarily the loser.

Russia is one of Aliexpress's main markets, as highlighted in the discussion. Product comments on the platform are literally full of Russian buyers. The Danish shipping company's exit is a blow, but not a fatal one: other companies will always be willing to fill the void, and the opportunity is lucrative.

Why is Maersk leaving Russia and what does it imply?

Maersk stops operating in Russia. That is a fact. What is not a fact is that this leaves Russians without their packages. The Danish carrier handled part of the maritime traffic, but trade between China and Russia has other channels that do not depend on a single European company.

The analysis makes a cold calculation: the share of business left by Maersk will be taken over almost immediately by another operator, with even higher profit margins because operational prices and risks change. Sanctions always generate alternative businesses. Does anyone believe Iran collapsed due to being excluded from oil purchases?

There is a geographical detail repeated with irony: there is no sea between China and Russia. They are land neighbors. The Mongolian steppe acts as a land sea, and trains run through there.

The train that doesn't stop: the China-Russia railway route

The war in Ukraine has paralyzed China's new Silk Road and congested the world's largest factory, according to cited information. The Asian giant has been forced to increase its exports by sea, which are more expensive and slower, to move its production. This is the headline being shared.

But here is the nuance that dismantles the headline: Russia has countless railway connections with China for transporting goods that do not depend on that specific train. The route between Russia and China remains operational. It just no longer reaches Chamartín (Madrid), which is logical and evident.

It is Europeans who don't get goods by train. Spaniards, mainly. Small Aliexpress packages usually arrive in Spain by plane. The train that was cut off was the one bringing goods to Western Europe, not the one going from China to Russia.

Who really pays for the sanctions?

Here the analysis becomes uncomfortable. While Russians continue to receive Aliexpress, in Spain bottles of sunflower oil cost 4 euros and gasoline costs 2 euros. Those who complain that the West takes sides in a war that doesn't concern them argue that citizens have been sold out to protect foreign interests.

The argument with the most traction is about side effects. When a company stops operating in a country, it doesn't just lose the market: if Russia accounted for 10% of its market, between 5% and 15% of its transport staff will lose their jobs. The layoff doesn't stay in Moscow. It lands in the office next door.

The other side is the energy cost. A country that belongs neither to the EU nor NATO is invaded by another that also doesn't belong. Europe, in its zeal, freezes accounts and sanctions its main supplier of energy, fertilizers, and grain. The result: prices skyrocket here, not there.

Kaliningrad and the pulse of enclaves

The case of Kaliningrad is used as evidence. The Russian enclave, with one million residents, is trapped without an outlet due to sanctions, with products up to five times more expensive than in Poland and authorities distributing land so people can grow their own potatoes. The irony noted is that they might end up eating the elderly, like in Leningrad.

The counterargument is that Maersk knows the terrain perfectly well. The political risk with European leaders is greater than withdrawing from a marginal and difficult-to-manage market: language barriers, currency issues, and the legendary reliability and punctuality of Russian companies. And Russian ports are owned by Asian operators.

China, the referee who doesn't want to be one

The underlying question is what China will do. Part of the analysis argues that China won't allow the United States to seize global hegemony, especially since they are next on the list. Another part warns that China could turn its back on Russia and stab them in the back.

The data point launched to size up the issue: China manufactures 90% of the medicines consumed on Earth and almost all solar panels. If the West wants to close global trade, it won't just stop trading with China, but with Korea and Asia in general. That means rolling back decades of pogre.

What no one disputes is that trade is being reordered. China is not as dependent on exporting, is not as cheap as it was, and the West has understood it cannot depend on it in strategic sectors. An average worker already costs more in Shenzhen than in Romania. The trend change is real; total blockade is not.

In the end, the question remains: if Aliexpress still delivers to Russians and we pay two euros for gasoline here, who is winning this trade war?