Kramatorsk and Sloviansk: the gateway to Donbas just 3 km away

The siege of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk enters its final phase

How long until the last two major cities of Donbas fall out of Ukrainian control? According to the most detailed tracking of the Russian offensive, the answer is now measured in kilometers, not weeks. By mid-August, Russian troops were just over 3 km from Kramatorsk airport and had captured the line of peripheral fortifications. In Sloviansk, the last stronghold before the urban area, Mykolaivka, had been in the gray zone for weeks.

This is not a blitzkrieg. It is a war of attrition reminiscent of Pokrovsk: slow advances, massive bombardments with FAB-1500 and FAB-3000 bombs, and an unprecedented density of drones. "These are the hardest 10 kilometers of the entire war," sums up one assessment of the front. The question is no longer whether they will fall, but how much it will cost to take them.

Advancing meter by meter: from 10 to 3 kilometers

The timeline shows constant pressure. In early July, the Russians were 8 km from Sloviansk and storming Mykolaivka. On July 8, the distance to Kramatorsk had shrunk to 7 km. On the 17th, to 5 km. By August 3, Russian troops were just over 3 km from Kramatorsk airport, with infiltration operations across the gray zone and commandos 3 km from the urban area.

The most significant development came on August 19: a 10 km peine south of Druzhkivka, along with the capture of Andriivka, which opens the door to an encirclement maneuver against both cities. Rather than storming them house by house, the option gaining ground is a giant cauldron, similar to the one that hastened the fall of Lyman and Kostiantynivka.

Urban assault or strategic encirclement?

The military dilemma is a classic one. Clearing Kramatorsk and Sloviansk street by street would cost unacceptable casualties; flattening them with bombs would leave two cities in ruins. The third option is to encircle them: cut the supply routes, hammer the logistics and wait. Drone fire on the supply lines is already constant. Every convoy trying to reach the cities is destroyed.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's rear guard is debating whether the war is a war of attrition against Russia or against NATO. "If this were a war of attrition, Ukraine would have lost within six months," argues one camp; the other holds that the Western goal is to wear Russia down using Ukrainians as cannon fodder. The underlying question of who pays for reconstruction and who bears the casualties remains, for now, unanswered.

An end with an uncertain date

Forecasts range from "the year 3000" as a skeptical joke to "once they fall, nothing stands left until the Dnipro" as a strategic warning. The only certainty is that the front is moving, slowly, but westward. Meanwhile, the two cities that were once a symbol of Donbas resistance watch as artillery and drones close the distance week by week.

At this pace, the fall of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk seems not a question of if, but of when. And of how many kilometers remain to be covered. The story of this war has already shown that optimistic timelines tend to die in the first trench. Now all that is left is to wait and count the kilometers.

---