Kidnapping Maduro was unnecessary if oil was the goal

The claim that Maduro refused to sell oil to the United States contradicts facts: in 2019, Venezuela produced 1.5 million barrels daily, with much of it going to US refineries. The break was decided by Washington when it recognized Guaidó, not by Caracas.

The premise that Venezuela cut off supplies to the US collapses under scrutiny. In 2019, under Maduro, the country produced **1.5 million barrels per day**, and a substantial part went to American refineries. The shift occurred when the **Donald Trump** administration recognized **Juan Guaidó** as interim president and stopped buying Venezuelan crude to squeeze the government's finances. It was a decision from Washington, not a refusal from Caracas.

## The Biden oil deal few publicized

In 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, the **Joe Biden** administration signed an oil agreement with Maduro without the noise of the previous episode. Venezuela resumed sending most of its production to the United States. This flow continued until January 2025, when Trump returned to the White House.

Unlike in 2019, the sector did not remain passive this time. **Chevron** and MAGA-aligned groups opposed cutting Venezuelan crude purchases, aware of the cost to US consumers.

## The 2025 swap and diversion to China

With **Marco Rubio** pushing a hardline stance, the license granted by Biden was suspended in 2025. The result was not a clean cut but a barter agreement: Chevron paid for Venezuelan oil with petrochemical components, while surplus production ended up in China. Beijing was the main beneficiary of this standoff.

In October 2025, Maduro offered the US preferential terms on oil and other resources to avoid a military attack on Venezuelan territory, according to **The New York Times**.

## A pretext that fails comparison

Venezuela was a weak, sanctioned republic with no capacity to threaten the leading global power. It had no weapons of mass destruction or nuclear program with missiles aimed at the US. If the argument was ties with China, Canada also signed deals with Beijing.

Some argue that had the Biden-Maduro agreements persisted, Venezuelan production would have exceeded **2.5 million barrels per day**, avoiding a diesel crisis. This is an estimate, not confirmed data.