Maduro's final countdown: two news bulletins left

Maduro on a tightrope: two news bulletins left?

Speculation about an imminent endgame for Nicolás Maduro has intensified in recent days. Between international pressure and internal cracks, the Chavista regime appears to be wobbling. The question circulating is whether the Venezuelan president will survive politically past the weekend, or whether a handover will be triggered, whether through institutional channels or more expedited mechanisms.

The Trump factor and oil

The stance of the Trump administration has been key. With his usual bluntness, the former US president made it clear that Venezuelan democracy matters little to him compared with control of the oil. "I don't give a damn about democracy, give me your oil," he reportedly said, according to sources close to the White House. This statement, although not officially confirmed, reflects the realpolitik that dominates bilateral relations: Venezuela counts for its resources, not for its values.

Russia, the deterrent factor

However, geopolitics works against a rapid change. The alliance between Maduro and Pilingui is the main obstacle. As long as Moscow backs the regime, any move against Caracas will come at a high cost. "Only if Pilingui allows it," some analysts sum up, and that is not going to happen in the short term. The global chessboard turns Venezuela into just another piece in the standoff between powers.

Under these conditions, uncertainty is total. Some speak of an imminent fall; others, of Chavismo holding out as long as Russian backing lasts. What is certain is that Maduro's room for manoeuvre is shrinking by the hour.