IBEX: November's Rally Defied German Woes

IBEX: November Rises as Investor Community Crumbles

In mid-November 2014, the IBEX 35 traded between 10,500 and 10,800 points, supported by the ECB's nascent bond-buying program and a Wall Street lifting European indices. The puzzling factor came from Germany: September factory orders grew by a mere 0.8%, far below the 2.3% expected by consensus, and domestic demand plummeted by 2.8%. The European powerhouse was sputtering, yet the Spanish selective index, against all odds, continued its ascent.

As the chart climbed, the country's main investor community was falling apart amidst insults, duplicate accounts, and mutual accusations. The market was rising. The platform discussing it, was not.

The Rally Germany Couldn't Explain

Targets multiplied. Some saw the IBEX closing the year at 11,200 points; others bet on closing the 10,600 gap first, only to crash later to the 8,600 gap in January. Figures were reported each morning with the tone of a verdict: 10,300, 10,450, 10,525, 10,800, 10,850. Any number sufficed if accompanied by a chart.

The ECB was the main bullish argument. The mere mention of 'buying' was enough for futures to surge collectively. "Long live wine," summarized one user. The link between the index and monetary policy had become so direct that technical analysis seemed redundant. Meanwhile, the volatility of mid-cap stocks turned every trading session into a rollercoaster.

Why Did an Entire Community Break Apart?

Because it developed what every large digital community eventually gets: duplicate accounts. A handful of identities—some created and deleted within minutes—dominated the conversation, making normal exchange impossible. Those looking for an opinion on Catalana or Crédito y Caución ended up reading a schoolyard brawl.

And there was business behind the noise. One of the most trinc analysts faced accusations—unproven—of turning his forecasts into a paid zone for 90 euros per quarter. He denied it, maintaining that his trinc themselves had suggested the donation out of gratitude for his advice. The controversy led to his withdrawal and left half the community searching for a new place to discuss without insults.

The Data That Did Matter

Behind the circus were concrete facts. Telefónica Brasil increased its net profit by 35%, placing the control of the Brazilian market in the hands of Telefónica and Carlos Slim, with Tim and Oi practically out of play due to their high debt. Crédit Agricole and Société Générale fell after reporting a weak third quarter and increasing provisions for litigation.

Endesa also made headlines: the electric utility requested a loan to pay a mega-dividend, of which 92% went to Enel, its main shareholder. The Italian windfall—Endesa was bought in 2007, after the Pizarro, Gas Natural, Eon, and Acciona saga—had been recouped in just seven years. The issue of the tariff deficit would be discussed later.

How the Month Closed

The IBEX finished November pushing towards previous highs, with 11,200 as the desired ceiling and the 8,600 gap still unresolved. The storm was not coming from the market, precisely. November rain, yes, but in the wrong place.

The community that had debated every level for years dispersed to other platforms while the index continued to rise without them. Analysis, paradoxically, was left without anyone to discuss it.