Ibex 35 at 10,922: The index rises, but not the accounts of those who trade it

Ibex 35 at 10,922: The index rises, but not the accounts of those who trade it

The Ibex 35 closed at 10,922.60 points, up 0.63%. On the surface, a quiet February session. Beneath the surface, a string of failed orders, hair-trigger stops, and platforms crashing just when a position needs closing. The index goes up. Those who trade it, not always.

The contradiction ran through the entire day. One trader went from a 65-pip profit to a loss of 25 because his broker's derivatives stopped responding. Another ended the morning with 10,630 in his pocket after two piping sessions, like someone collecting a tip that their nap prevented them from earning. The stock market rewards, but it charges a toll.

The Fed's Money Printing and the Market's Indifference

The underlying issue wasn't charts, but who was paying for the party. Some argue that the market rises on days the Federal Reserve intervenes by buying bonds—known as POMO operations—and falls on days of selling or inactivity. The pattern, according to this analysis, is drawn with uncomfortable clarity.

The striking thing is that the machine isn't accelerating. Money is being injected in vast quantities, and the index just stares. Some interpret this as a sign of deflation that the central bank wants to cover up at all costs, while others suspect the liquidity is going directly to the big players. Neither interpretation can be proven with a chart in hand. But the chart still goes up.

Ibex Levels: 10,794 as the floor and 11,051 as the ceiling

Mid-morning, projections from one of the most veteran traders' systems circulated. Absolute ceiling at 11,051, with two significant levels at 11,018 and 10,986. Absolute floor at 10,794, with 10,827 as a reference. A later calculation from the same source placed the intraday ceiling at a convergence between 10,796.8, 10,825.7, and 10,828.5.

The problem with these numbers is that they are not prophecies. If the price breaks an absolute floor during the session, the model is invalidated, and the trader is left exposed. The full breakdown of how they are constructed and when they are considered dead is a long read: it's not a traffic light, it's a hypothesis with an expiration date.

DAX Breaks 7,220 and S&P Targets 1,350

The German index surpassed the area that was marked as a probable ceiling at the end of the previous year, with a green candle that showed no reversal pattern. Crossing that boundary left the next stop open.

Across the Atlantic, the S&P 500 had its theoretical quarterly ceiling around 1,340, with a recommended selling zone between 1,310 and 1,320. The Dow Jones was approaching 12,400. For the Spanish selective index, the first-quarter ceiling was set at 11,200. These are areas where systems stop buying and start unwinding. And when all systems do the same thing at the same time, things get interesting.

Five Euros Per Trade: The Broker's Fine Print

A novice investor bought 300 shares of Sacyr at 3.66 euros: 1,111.02 euros disappeared from his account. He sold them at 3.73. The advertised commission from his entity was 5 euros per trade under 4,000 euros, but he was charged an extra euro on the purchase. The question he left hanging—whether he would be charged again upon selling—summarizes the underlying problem: in a small portfolio, commissions eat up the trade before it even begins.

With a P/E ratio of 27 and construction frozen, some targeted a company with divestments in Chilean highways as a candidate for short positions. Crude oil, meanwhile, was trading at $100.

Programming in Python or Wrestling with Excel on a Pentium IV

Between trades, the day shifted to something more down-to-earth: how to set up a homemade system without spending a fortune. A spreadsheet per stock is frustrating on an i7 with 4 GB of RAM, and downright suicidal on a Pentium IV. The recurring recommendation: switch to Python, and if possible, do it from Linux.

The sarracena is uncomfortable for those who sell technology as a competitive advantage. You can fight the market without millisecond data or server farms. Or so claim those who have been doing exactly that for years, while still getting stopped out along the way.

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February closes with the Ibex at 10,922, and March begins with the same old question. How much of the rise is economy, and how much is a switched-on printer?