Ibex 2012 Close at 7,213: Forecasts of 9,400 for 2013 and a 52% Tax Hike

Ibex Closes 2012 at 7,213: Forecasts of 9,400 and a 52% Tax Axe

A forum user and six friends pooled money to buy seven new-build homes in a development near a Catalan ski resort. They asked Servihabitat for a 40% discount on the list price. The seller's response was that only if they bought all seven would they get a 10% reduction. This episode, recounted with disbelief at the start of the 2013 stock market watch, summarizes the mood at the year's opening: while property refused to budge, the stock market was coming off a 2012 close at 7,213.43 points.

What Was Discussed in January 2013 and How the Previous Year Ended

The starting point was a recap: a dozen trades, an average return of 6.5% excluding dividends, and a little over 7% if dividends were included. The self-criticism was sharp — good entry point, too nervous and unambitious exit point — and served to set expectations for the year ahead. Forecasts at the time pointed to a ceiling of 9,400 and a floor of 4,972 from the 7,213.43 close. A range of almost 4,500 points, which translated into percentages, allowed for any scenario and its opposite.

Some joined from the outset with the feeling that 2013 would be "an interesting year." Others replied, without hiding their appetite for drama, that it would be much more than interesting.

The Tax Axe on Capital Gains That Changed the Rules of the Game

The tax reform was the first thing many had to contend with. From 2013 onwards, capital gains made in less than a year would be taxed at the marginal income tax rate, with a range between 24.75% and 52%. Gains held for over a year maintained brackets of 21% up to 6,000 euros, 25% between 6,000 and 24,000, and 27% above that figure.

The comparison with the past was painful: there was a time, not long ago, when a single rate of 15% applied to capital gains. The repeated conclusion was that savings had lost some of their appeal, and that short-term trading was much more expensive than before.

The logical question soon arose: was it worth paying taxes through a limited company? The circulating answer had a catch. The limited company allowed for deducting expenses, avoiding professional withholdings, delaying tax payments until July, and practically recovering advance payments to the Treasury. But the warning trinc: profits don't belong to the generator, they belong to the company. A classic trap that many forget just before celebrating.

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The End of the Short-Selling Ban: What Peine on December 31st

The other date marked in red was December 31st. On that day, the CNMV (Spain's National Securities Market Commission) ended the ban on bearish operations on the Spanish stock market, a restriction that had lasted for months. The news, published in the financial press, was welcomed with open arms by some and seen as the perfect excuse to sell by others.

The argument of supporters was direct: short selling is necessary to reduce market manipulation, and banning it is equivalent to curbing the free stock market. The more cautious warned as usual: lifting the ban could trigger sharp movements the next day, and those who weren't clear on things shouldn't trade with it.

In parallel, the external context didn't help. The ten-year Spanish bond pushed the risk premium to 367 basis points, with a rise of 23 basis points at the opening. And the US president's warning about the catastrophic consequences of not raising the US debt ceiling added fuel to a fire that, according to some, had just been lit.

Bulls and Bears: Two Ways of Reading the Same Chart

The underlying discussion was how to interpret the rise. One side argued that the IBEX had already risen as much as it was going to, that 8,300 was a floor for activating a third impulse, and that anything coming after that was "free." The technical reasoning was honest: normally, the maximum extension of a ceiling cannot be determined until it is very well established, leaving only two options, staying out or taking a risk.

The opposing side didn't deny the rise but looked for its weaknesses. They spoke of "canaries" starting to fall — energy stocks, silver stocks, coal stocks, solar stocks — of green candles without volume, and of the S&P 500 approaching 1,524 points as a key figure. The thesis was that the final rise would be supported by Apple and four large stocks, and then the blow would come, sweeping away the long positions.

The most seasoned recommended calm. Some warned that no one likes to be told to leave the party, and recalled that history is full of false golden fleeces and crowds searching for them. One forum user summarized it starkly: save yourself first, and then worry about who else to save.

Hunting in Small Caps and Biotech: Names and Figures That Circulated

The finer analysis focused on the lower end of the market. It was warned that companies with large debt maturities in 2013 might not rule out some bankruptcies with corresponding crashes. Biotech companies like Novavax, Savient, and Arena Pharma were closely monitored, with specific targets — $7 for the latter after losing its uptrend channel — and a strong warning was repeated: when small stocks can't go up, they always go down, and they don't usually take prisoners.

Some trades were recorded with names and prices. Someone confirmed a purchase of 40,000 shares at 0.305 and another entry point, with a stop at 0.28. Another lowered the stop for Pescanova to 15.5. And it was recalled, for those boasting of catching a SAN or a BBVA at 4, that everything is easy in hindsight: some bought them at 17 thinking that was the bottom.

The lesson that was repeated had to do with risk management. It's not enough to be right more often than wrong; you have to prevent a single position from ruining the entire year. And distrust anyone who claims to know why every tick moved: in a world of probabilities, the reasonable thing is to look for a winning bias through patterns and statistics.


Tools, Platforms, and the Problem of Illiquidity

There was also room for the practical. Those asking about platforms for automated trading received specific names: PROREALTIME, without intraday charts, or MetaTrader, with its M4 language to define strategies and even authorize the algorithm to open positions on its own. The underlying advice was to take your time before letting code operate alone.

And a reflection on liquidity that is worth its weight. An investor explained that he wanted to enter a stock strongly and, upon looking at the volumes, backed off: if he set a fixed price, 35,000 euros wouldn't execute in the entire session; and if he placed a market order, between the first and last trade, he lost 7% of the price. In small stocks, moving alone carries these risks, because a significant sale opens a hole in the quote.

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When the Watch Became the Target of Others' Humor

There was an episode that shows how things worked internally. Several participants began commenting on the forums of a financial news outlet covering the news of the end of the short-selling ban. One celebrated that his comment had been published; another mocked him for already accumulating six negative ratings. There was talk of "trolling" the outlet, and that a new audience had discovered the market's backstage.

In between, fine irony about property and traditional financial products. Someone joked about having first invested in stamps, then in a new Rumasa, then in preferred shares — some exchanged, others not — and now in banks, just when the IBEX was going up and they "did this" to him. The wry humor served to talk about what really mattered: the feeling that the small investor always arrives late to the party.

Why the Closing Date Matters: 7,213.43

The data that orders all of the above is that closing figure. The forecast range was built upon it, entries were planned, and successes and errors were measured. And yet, the figure that caused the most discomfort was not the IBEX's. It was the S&P's, 1,524 points. When the index approached it, correction warnings intensified. When it surpassed it, the uncomfortable silence of those left out appeared. Neither the United States nor the Eurozone had resolved their problems. German data indicated that the recession would continue. And the market, even so, kept rising. No one could quite figure out why.