Hungary, Orbán's twilight: imminent defeat at the ballot box

Hungary votes: the Orbán era hangs by a thread after three years of stagnation

This year's Hungarian election points to a historic outcome. According to preliminary data from the official portal vtr.valasztas.hu, Viktor Orbán's party, Fidesz, is losing ground as the count pogre. The first polls already spoke of a free fall, and an hour before polls closed, the live results confirmed that the illiberal leader is heading for a defeat many considered unlikely until recently.

The wear and tear of a model: corruption and zero growth

Orbán has been in power for fourteen years, but his image has deteriorated both inside and outside Hungary. First-hand sources, such as Hungarian citizens living abroad, describe growing discontent. They criticise Orbán for banning Pride Day, for promising not to leave even if he loses the election, and for the obscene enrichment of his inner circle: his childhood friend has become the richest man in the country. Meanwhile, the Hungarian economy has racked up three years of zero growth, a damning figure for a country that prides itself on being Central Europe's "island of stability". Outside Budapest, wages are low and the lack of opportunities has become chronic.

The European dilemma: why doesn't he leave?

One of the questions hanging over the debate is why Orbán, so critical of Brussels, does not trinc the British example and leave the European Union. The answer, according to observers of Hungarian political life, is that the EU keeps injecting funds that the government uses to buy votes. "Every time he protests, they shower him with money," sums up a son of Budapest. That is why the opposition, led by a former member of Fidesz itself, presents itself as the only way to steer the country towards a pragmatic pro-Europeanism.

A demographic replacement that never comes

On top of all this is a structural problem: Hungary has no generational replacement. Birth rates are rock bottom and Orbán's pro-natalist policies have delivered no results, worsening the outlook for the future. An opposition victory would, in any case, be an experiment: bringing to power a candidate who emerged from the regime's own guts. Who knows whether the change will be cosmetic or profound. For now, the ballot box has spoken.

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With the votes still fresh, the emerging scenario is that of a cornered Orbán, but still with room for manoeuvre. What comes next will depend on whether he accepts the result or, as his critics warn, tries to cling to power by force. Hungary, in any case, has ceased to be Europe's exception and has become a mirror of a tension that is not only its own.