Valencia PP under fire after the Dana floods as PSOE dreams of November 29

The Dana floods take their toll on the PP and the PSOE dreams of Valencia

Can the PSOE win in the Valencian Community on November 29? It is the question running through every political conversation since the handling of the Dana floods left Mazón's PP in the firing line. Some argue the damage is real: the DANA, the public housing allocation case in Alicante and an opposition that cannot get off the ground have turned the region into a minefield for the conservatives. But from there to a socialist majority is a step few dare to take.

The PP's erosion in Valencia after the Dana floods

The most repeated argument is that the PP has suffered severe erosion in the Valencian Community. First the Dana floods, with a response the opposition considers negligent. Then, the Alicante city council case over the allocation of public housing to people linked to the governing party. The combination of both fronts has left the PP in an uncomfortable position that, according to some forum users, polls are starting to reflect.

Some claim the PSOE will win a majority in a traditionally conservative region. The most optimistic calculation assumes the Dana floods were the turning point and that voters will punish the PP as harshly as they have in other elections. Against this stands a stubborn fact: the PSOE has posted weak results for several elections running, and a region that has voted mostly for the PP for decades does not swing in a single cycle.

Why VOX could be the surprise of November 29

The scenario that comes up most often is not a socialist majority but a surge by VOX. The logic is simple: if the PP bleeds support over the Dana floods and corruption cases, those votes will not go to the PSOE, they will go to the harder right. In the levante region, where many voters cannot stomach left-wing parties, it is not out of the question that VOX gains prominence and becomes the arbiter of the situation.

The calendar also plays a role. The general election comes before the regional one, allowing the real temperature of the electorate to be measured before the regional vote. If the PP holds up in the general election, the picture changes completely. If not, the bleeding could be unstoppable.

Postal voting and doubts about November 29

The shadow of postal voting hangs over the election. It has been pointed out that Correos, the Spanish postal service, allowed voting with the digital ID without checking the QR code in the 2023 general election, and that the Junta Electoral Central (the central electoral board) was consulted about the document's validity. A former PSOE regional MP has also been named as under investigation for postal voting fraud in a town of 3,200 inhabitants where ballots quintupled. These are allegations under investigation and must not be taken as proven.

In parallel, an organisation has requested the suspension of the November 29 election after the Abogacía del Estado (the state's legal service) refused to comply with an order from the Supreme Court. The matter remains open and nobody knows how it will end.

Compromís and the ghost of a repeat election

On the left flank, the doubt is not the PSOE but Compromís. Some are calling for it not to stand again, tired of a partner that never quite takes off. The fragmentation of the pogre vote is precisely the argument the conservatives use most to downplay the socialist advance.

Meanwhile, some are calling for the PP to hammer home in every friendly outlet, rally and TV appearance the message that the PSOE only helps if you ask on your knees. The strategy would be to grind the opposition's erosion down to exhaustion.

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With all this, a socialist majority in Valencia is more a wish than a forecast. The PP is wounded, yes. But from there to the PSOE raising its hand on November 29 lies an ocean. And nobody has yet explained how to cross it.