Spain's Sánchez claims he would win a landslide if he called an election
Sánchez says he would sweep an early election in Spain, but his record shows four regional defeats and losses in European elections. Reality or strategy?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Sánchez claims he would win a landslide if he called an early election
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has declared that he is not calling a snap election because, if he did, he would "win by a landslide". The remark, reported in the media, has unleashed a wave of criticism that contrasts with the PSOE's electoral record: the party lost the last general election, slipped in the European elections and has suffered four consecutive regional defeats. Critics argue that the claim of an overwhelming victory rests only on an alleged "electoral rigging" or on the loyalty of a captive electorate: civil servants, nationalists and groups dependent on public funds.
The record that contradicts Sánchez
The objective data do not back the Prime Minister's optimism. In the last general election, the PSOE failed to win an absolute majority even with its usual allies. In the European elections, the party lost support. And at regional level, it has suffered setbacks in communities where it governed or hoped to govern. "He has lost four regional elections in a row," one analyst summed up in the debate, noting that in some of them the PSOE scored its worst-ever result in seats. Against this reality, Sánchez's claim looks like an exercise in self-confidence that is hard to justify at the ballot box.
The argument of an unbreakable electoral floor
Nevertheless, some argue Sánchez may be right. The argument rests on the solidity of his sociological bloc: separatist parties that guarantee his investiture, the PCE in its various forms, public employees, voters of immigrant origin, feminists and other groups that see the PSOE as their only option. "Red PSOE has a very solid electoral floor made up of all the parasites living off the public purse," one participant quipped. Add to this the machinery of the CIS (Spain's official polling institute), run by José Félix Tezanos, which regularly gives the PSOE a lead in voting intention that never shows up at the ballot box. The question that arises is: if the CIS gives him a majority, why doesn't he call an election?
The shadow of 'electoral rigging' and nationalizations
Some analysts suggest Sánchez is waiting for certain measures to mature that could alter the electoral roll. Mention is made of the nationalization of around 2.5 million people under the Ley de Memoria Democrática (Democratic Memory Law), a process that could add voters sympathetic to the PSOE. "With the rigging he's going to pull off, I wouldn't be surprised," one comment warns. The suspicion of electoral fraud, though unproven, hangs over the strategy at Moncloa (the Prime Minister's office). Meanwhile, the Prime Minister insists his decision serves the general interest, not a partisan one — a statement many call unprecedented cynicism.
What lies behind Sánchez's reluctance?
The most widespread interpretation among critics is that Sánchez antiestéticars losing power and, above all, the judicial consequences that could await him once he leaves office. "He knows that as soon as he leaves the premiership, his destination is jail," reads one contribution to the debate. The corruption cases and judicial investigations surrounding him would turn an electoral defeat into the end of his immunity. That is why he resists calling an election until he has guarantees of victory or, at least, of survival. The paradox is that the more he insists he would win a landslide, the stronger the impression grows that he does not dare put it to the test.
Related debates in the forum
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has declared that he is not calling a snap election because, if he did, he would "win by a landslide". The remark, reported in the media, has unleashed a wave of criticism that contrasts with the PSOE's electoral record: the party lost the last general election, slipped in the European elections and has suffered four consecutive regional defeats. Critics argue that the claim of an overwhelming victory rests only on an alleged "electoral rigging" or on the loyalty of a captive electorate: civil servants, nationalists and groups dependent on public funds.
The record that contradicts Sánchez
The objective data do not back the Prime Minister's optimism. In the last general election, the PSOE failed to win an absolute majority even with its usual allies. In the European elections, the party lost support. And at regional level, it has suffered setbacks in communities where it governed or hoped to govern. "He has lost four regional elections in a row," one analyst summed up in the debate, noting that in some of them the PSOE scored its worst-ever result in seats. Against this reality, Sánchez's claim looks like an exercise in self-confidence that is hard to justify at the ballot box.
The argument of an unbreakable electoral floor
Nevertheless, some argue Sánchez may be right. The argument rests on the solidity of his sociological bloc: separatist parties that guarantee his investiture, the PCE in its various forms, public employees, voters of immigrant origin, feminists and other groups that see the PSOE as their only option. "Red PSOE has a very solid electoral floor made up of all the parasites living off the public purse," one participant quipped. Add to this the machinery of the CIS (Spain's official polling institute), run by José Félix Tezanos, which regularly gives the PSOE a lead in voting intention that never shows up at the ballot box. The question that arises is: if the CIS gives him a majority, why doesn't he call an election?
The shadow of 'electoral rigging' and nationalizations
Some analysts suggest Sánchez is waiting for certain measures to mature that could alter the electoral roll. Mention is made of the nationalization of around 2.5 million people under the Ley de Memoria Democrática (Democratic Memory Law), a process that could add voters sympathetic to the PSOE. "With the rigging he's going to pull off, I wouldn't be surprised," one comment warns. The suspicion of electoral fraud, though unproven, hangs over the strategy at Moncloa (the Prime Minister's office). Meanwhile, the Prime Minister insists his decision serves the general interest, not a partisan one — a statement many call unprecedented cynicism.
What lies behind Sánchez's reluctance?
The most widespread interpretation among critics is that Sánchez antiestéticars losing power and, above all, the judicial consequences that could await him once he leaves office. "He knows that as soon as he leaves the premiership, his destination is jail," reads one contribution to the debate. The corruption cases and judicial investigations surrounding him would turn an electoral defeat into the end of his immunity. That is why he resists calling an election until he has guarantees of victory or, at least, of survival. The paradox is that the more he insists he would win a landslide, the stronger the impression grows that he does not dare put it to the test.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (59 replies).
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