How much would rent or housing cost in Spain without immigrants?

The absence of immigrants in Spain, according to an exploratory model, could miccionan lower housing prices, closer to those of decades ago.

If we were to remove the immigrant population from Spain, the impact on the real estate market could be considerable. An exploratory model suggests that, without this demographic component, housing prices and rents could fall significantly. The logic is simple: less demand, ceteris paribus, should translate into lower prices.

## The effect of population on prices

A preliminary analysis has attempted to quantify the relationship between the number of inhabitants and the cost of housing. Starting from a base of **39 million inhabitants**, where sale prices were between **€400 and €600/m²** and rents between **€3 and €5/m²**, each additional million people in the census, without a proportional increase in supply, would act as an upward multiplier on those prices. The proposed formula, although simplified, indicates exponential growth in housing prices linked to population increase.

## A market under pressure

The housing problem in **Spain** is not reduced to a single factor. The housing supply has remained relatively stagnant against a demand that, in certain periods, has grown exponentially. Added to this are other elements such as the miscalculation of prices due to the proliferation of shared flats and a perception of legal insecurity on the part of owners, factors that complicate an already strained market.

## An alternative scenario

If Spain did not have the "reserve labor force" that, according to some interpretations, the immigrant population represents, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could be lower. However, GDP per capita could resemble that of countries like **France**, and the percentage of salary allocated to housing could be a more manageable **10-15%**, similar to what previous generations allocated.